BuDS’ calculations suggest that the Government’s official Impact Assessment for Lauren Edwards’ Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill may be underestimating the number of medically assisted suicides by nearly 400%. Another way of saying this is that we think the Government’s estimate is almost 4 times smaller than it should be.
To put this in terms of numbers, the Government estimate that around 6,257 people per year will die by assisted suicide once the Bill comes fully into force. Our estimate is that 21,600 people could die by assisted suicide every year.
This really matters. MPs must know that, if they vote for Lauren Edwards’ Bill, they likely are putting in place a massive institutionalised system for the assisted suicide of tens of thousands of British people. This is a completely different situation to that suggested by lobbyists and pro-suicide apologists, who persistently claim that only a few hundred people who are already very close to death will be affected by the Bill.
We urge everyone who opposes this Bill to share our data and calculations with their MP. MPs must know exactly what they are doing if they vote for this Bill.
More Detail
The Government’s official Impact Assessment for Lauren Edwards’ Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill estimates the highest number of medically assisted suicides for the first year of the Bill coming into force as 2,766. This is about 0.5% of the projected total number of deaths in England and Wales in that year. The Impact Assessment also estimates that the highest number of medically assisted suicides in the tenth year of the Bill being in force as 6,257. This is about 1.1% of the projected total number of deaths in England and Wales in that year. The Government have calculated these figures by looking at assisted suicide schemes in the United States and New Zealand.
BuDS does not think that these are the right countries to look at when thinking about how many people might die by assisted suicide in the UK. We think that it is better to look at assisted suicide schemes in countries that have societies and health care systems much more like the UK than the United States. By looking at assisted suicide schemes in Europe, Canada, and Australia, we estimate that around 10,700 people in England and Wales will die by assisted suicide in the first year of the scheme becoming legal. In the tenth year, we estimate around 21,600 people in England and Wales will die by assisted suicide. You can find out more about these calculations below.
Our Methods
BuDS has collected data about assisted suicide deaths from the official Government reports in Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium, and the state of Victoria in Australia. All these countries have broadly similar assisted suicide schemes to the one which might be introduced in the UK, and they also have similar societies and health and social care systems. We have not used the assisted suicide scheme in Spain, because the criteria are exceptionally tight, and the number of assisted suicide deaths very small.
Looking at these comparator countries, in Belgium 3.1% of deaths were by assisted suicide, in Canada 5.1% of deaths were by assisted suicide, and in the Netherlands 6% of deaths were by assisted suicide. (We’ve used the latest available data for each country). On average across these countries, the number of assisted suicide deaths as an average percentage of total deaths is 3.75%.
We have assumed that in the UK, the number of assisted suicide deaths as a percentage of total deaths in the first year of Lauren Edwards’ Bill coming into force would be half of the average percentage in our comparator countries, i.e. 1.88%. We did this because the Government, in their own estimates, used a percentage for the first year of assisted suicide deaths which was half that used for the tenth year.
By the tenth year, we have assumed that the number of assisted suicide deaths as a percentage of total deaths would be the same as the average percentage in our comparator countries, i.e. 3.75%.
The table below shows the difference between the Government estimates and BuDS’ estimates.
| Assisted Suicides in First Year | Assisted Suicides in First Year as Percentage of Total Deaths | Assisted Suicides in Tenth Year | Assisted Suicides in Tenth Year as Percentage of Total Deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Estimate | 2,766 | 0.48% | 6,257 | 1.09% |
| BuDS Estimate | 10,700 | 1.88% | 21,600 | 3.75% |
More Information
If you would like more information about our Assisted Suicide IAG project, or how we have calculated the figures used in this article, please email us using the button below.
If you would like to view the full Government Impact Assessment, use the button below.