Covid infection levels in England have fallen to the lowest levels recorded since the pandemic began. The risk level is now Moderately Low, with 1 in every 1052 people in England infected. The risk from respiratory viruses, including Covid, in the community remains at its lowest ever level.
This estimate is based on highly reliable data, and the downward trend of infection levels is independently confirmed by all other available data. As a community of disabled and highly Covid-cautious people, BuDS is satisfied that Covid infection levels in England are indeed at unprecedented lows at present. However, Covid has not vanished and there is still a risk of catching the virus in high-risk indoor places.
Why Are Infection Levels So Low?
The reason for Covid infection levels falling to such relatively low levels is straightforward. After five years of vaccination and repeated waves of infection, there is a huge amount of community immunity against catching the variants of Covid which are currently in circulation. This means that tens of thousands of people are catching Covid every week rather than hundreds of thousands or even millions, as we have seen in the past. Also, with improving weather, people are indoors less frequently, and therefore less likely to catch respiratory viruses.
Current low levels do not mean we have achieved ‘herd immunity’ against Covid. Herd immunity refers to long-lasting community immunity from mass vaccination against a virus which is stable in form. With Covid, it is only a matter of time before the virus mutates and a new variant appears which can ignore pre-existing community immunity. When this happens, the UK will experience another large Covid wave of infections as we saw in from 2021 to 2024.
What Does This Mean For Me?
While the risk of infection is so low, most people will be able to consider relaxing precautions against catching Covid in all but high-risk indoor places. People who are very Covid-cautious may wish to consider maintaining precautions in medium-high risk places. We give detailed guidance on this in the table below.
Covid Spring Boosters Now Bookable
The NHS is currently offering Covid vaccine boosters to everyone aged 75 or over, all aged-care home residents, and a small group of acutely clinically vulnerable people. If you are eligible for a booster, you can book it now online, through the NHS app, or through your local GP surgery. Carers and family of these people are not eligible, and neither are healthcare and care staff.
BuDS very strongly recommends that everyone eligible for a booster takes up the offer. If you are not eligible for the Covid vaccine booster on the NHS, BuDS recommends that you consider a private vaccination. These are available at many pharmacies across England, including supermarket pharmacies and local high street outlets. Based on previous vaccination rounds, the cost is likely to be around £100 per person.
You might be tempted not to get boosted at the moment because the Covid infection risk is low. However, Covid infection levels can rise very quickly when a new variant arrives, and having received a booster now will significantly increase your protection if and when that happens. Remember, Covid vaccination not only reduces your risk of severe illness when you catch Covid, but also helps protect you against Long Covid and post-Covid conditions. There are no arguments against being boosted (if your doctor does not advise against this), and many arguments in favour of being boosted.
Risk Analysis
Given the very low level of Covid and other respiratory viruses, and in accordance with the precautionary principle, we now recommend that precautions against respiratory viruses should be taken by everyone in high-risk indoor places only.
The risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) in high-risk indoor areas include wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors, improving fresh air ventilation, using a HEPA filter, and avoiding higher-risk areas.
In lower, medium, and medium-high risk indoor places, people who are not highly Covid-cautious should consider whether precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people who are not taking precautions, and/or used by sick people who are much more likely to have Covid. Typically, poorly ventilated spaces. Journeys typically involve several stages and venues, widening infection risk | Minimum 1, potentially 5+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places, in view of the high infection risk. |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Potentially 1+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized bars, clubs, and restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 2 to 4 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 21 to 42 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus (and sometimes infected water droplets) which hangs in the air for you to breathe in. The virus and/or droplet cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 268th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.