Covid infection levels in England have jumped by a third this week, and we have raised the BuDS overall Covid risk level to Moderate. With 1 in every 857 people in England infected as of 30 August, we now recommend precautions including PPE masks in all but medium and low risk indoor places.
Other respiratory viruses, including flu, remain at low levels but are rising as we move into the autumn.
The Autumn Covid Wave May Be Lower Than Last Year
Just as we saw in 2025, Covid infection levels are rising as we approach autumn. However, so far, Covid infection levels have been significantly lower in 2026 than in 2025. At this time in 2025, 1 in 224 people in England were infected, four times higher than now. If 2026 continues to follow the pattern of 2025, it is possible that the autumn wave this year may be significantly less severe than last year.
But Precautions Still Necessary in More Places
However, while Covid infection levels are lower than last autumn, that doesn’t mean that everywhere is safe. We strongly recommend full precautions, including a PPE mask, in all but medium and low risk indoor places. Medium risk places are those used by up to 200 people, and low risk places are those used by 25-50 people. ‘Going small’, i.e. using smaller shops, restaurants, and other indoor places, means a much lower risk of encountering and infected person from whom you can catch Covid. For people who have relaxed masking and other precautions during the summer, going small may be a way to allow this to continue for a few more weeks. And, of course, catching Covid out of doors remains unlikely, so outdoor living without precautions remains a safer alternative to mixing indoors.
Obviously, if you work or regularly visit a higher-risk indoor place, your risk of encountering a person with Covid is much higher, and you should take precautions accordingly. Remember also that high traffic places, like public transport hubs and hospitals, are more likely to have residual virus in the air from infected people passing through.
These are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you. The table below gives full information and explains our risk ratings for indoor places.
Cases Will Surge in Children & Young Adults
With the return of schools, colleges and universities, we do expect a surge of Covid infections in children and young adults inside these places which will spread to homes over the next few weeks. Places used by lots of children and adults should be considered higher risk places to catch Covid even if they are not large indoor spaces. Remember, children and young adults may have only mild or no symptoms of Covid but still be infectious.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Even if you are relaxing some precautions because Covid infection levels are currently low, you may wish to still use other precautions. For example, you may decide not to mask in a café, but to still sit near an open window or to use a HEPA filter.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| Highest | Hospitals & other medical buildings, on buses and trains and other public transport, and in very large indoor stadiums or theatres. | Used by very large numbers of people who are not taking precautions, and/or used by sick people who are much more likely to have Covid. Often poorly ventilated spaces. | You are statistically likely to encounter more than one infected person every time you visit. When you visit, statistically there are likely to be 1 to 6 infected people. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| High | Schools, universities and colleges, large cinemas & theatres, large indoor performing arts venues, large indoor shopping centres | Used by large numbers of people who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically likely to encounter at least one infected person every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, local indoor shopping centres, large office buildings. All places used by lots of children and young adults, even if they are not large indoor places. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person on either the first or second of two visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants (100-200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person on your first visit, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 2 to 3 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Covid-cautious people using these spaces will wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Lower | Small pubs, bars & cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 17 to 34 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Most people may feel it is still safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these spaces in view of the very low infection risk. However, highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces may wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
New Way to Help BuDS
BuDS is not funded by grants for any of our Covid-19 information, advice, and guidance work. We are reliant entirely on private donations. You can make a one-off donation using the link below.
If you would like to support BuDS’ Covid work more regularly, you can now take out a paid or free subscription to our weekly Substack articles. The content of the free articles and the paid articles is exactly the same. The only difference is that, by taking out a paid subscription, you are directly helping BuDS every week with a small donation. It’s not really a subscription, it’s a regular donation.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 287th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/. (The paid and free subscriptions are exactly the same, but choosing a paid one gives us a small, regular donation to support our work.)
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.