Covid infection levels in England have fallen again to a new low. The risk level remains Moderately Low, with 1 in every 1597 people in England infected.
As regular readers will know, BuDS researchers use highly reliable data to calculate prevalence. We independently confirm our results using all other available data. As Covid-cautious people ourselves, we rely on these estimates just as much as we know our readers do.
What Does This Mean For Me?
With Covid infection levels at new lows, we have changed our advice accordingly. We now recommend that precautions against catching Covid are only necessary in High Risk indoor places, such as hospitals, public transport, and large buildings like universities. In Medium High, Medium, and Low Risk indoor public places, we do not feel that the infection risk justifies taking strict precautions against catching Covid. This is because, statistically, you are unlikely to encounter a person with Covid, even in a large supermarket, on a single visit.
Remember, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you.
You also need to remember that we use the statistical risk of meeting an infected person. Statistical risk and real risk are not necessarily the same thing. For example, you might need to visit a small café more than 50 times before you are statistically certain to meet one infected person. However, the real risk is that you meet might that infected person on the first visit you make. This is why we advise everyone to think about the Covid risk they personally are willing to take.
The table below gives full information and explains what we mean by high, medium-high, medium, and lower-risk indoor places.
Covid Spring Boosters Still Bookable
Covid vaccine boosters are still available on the NHS to everyone aged 75 or over, all aged-care home residents, and a small group of acutely clinically vulnerable people. If you are eligible for a booster, you can book it online, through the NHS app, or through your local GP surgery. BuDS very strongly recommends that everyone eligible for a booster takes up the offer.
If you are not eligible for the Covid vaccine booster on the NHS, BuDS recommends that you consider a private vaccination. These are available at many pharmacies across England, including supermarket pharmacies and local high street outlets. The cost is typically £90-100 per person.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it. So, avoiding the higher risk areas listed in our table below, or only going to those areas when they are very quiet, will help you avoid an infection.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Even if you are relaxing some precautions because Covid infection levels are currently low, you may wish to still use other precautions. For example, you may decide not to mask in a café, but to still sit near an open window, or to use a HEPA filter at your place of work.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges, large indoor performing arts venues, large indoor shopping centres | Used by very large numbers of people who are not taking precautions, and/or used by sick people who are much more likely to have Covid. Typically, poorly ventilated spaces. Journeys typically involve several stages and venues, widening infection risk | Minimum 1, potentially 3+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places, in view of the continuing high infection risk. |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, local indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres, very dense crowds out of doors (e.g. festivals) | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 1 to 2 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized bars, clubs, and restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 3 to 5 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 32 to 64 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
More Information
This is BuDS’ 270th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.