The Covid wave in England continues to grow very fast. As of 27 September, 1 in every 234 people were infected, up 31% on the previous week. The BuDS overall Covid risk level was Moderately High, but is likely by today (2 October) to be already High. We are now recommending that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places.
Influenza (flu) levels are also starting to rapidly increase, although they are still lower at present. There is every sign that England will have another very bad flu winter wave.
Analysis
Covid infection levels in England are rising very steeply, and all the data is pointing in the same way. There is no sign yet of a slowing in the rate of infection or that we are nearing ‘the peak of the wave’. Tentatively, we are predicting a wave of Covid not much smaller than that in 2025.
Mask Up!
The BuDS Covid risk level as of 27 September was Moderately High, but by now (2 October), the risk level is probably High. Accordingly, we now recommend that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places. Some people may feel that the risk is still low enough in spaces used by very small (under 10) numbers of people to not use a mask, although this can be risky.
Safety tips:
- Beware of small indoor places like WCs, takeaway food outlets or parcel collection points which are used by large numbers of people over time, even if there are few in the space at any one time. Unless the ventilation is good, the risk of such places having a cloud of Covid virus hanging in the air is high.
- Beware of people who meet large numbers of people in their job or life, such as receptionists, shop workers, tradespeople, etc. They are far more likely to have Covid from their encounters with other people.
- If you visit a number of small indoor places on a single day, such as local shops, your risk of meeting an infected person is much higher than it seems. Although you may only see one or two people in each visit, the total may add up to a significant number, and of course the indoor air is such shops may be laden with virus.
BuDS Has Your Back
Our aim is to help Covid-Cautious people continue to engage safely in society as England moves through this seasonal wave of Covid. Obviously, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid. A CO2 monitor will help you understand how fresh or recirculated indoor air is – the lower the CO2, the better.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Even if you are relaxing some precautions because Covid infection levels are currently low, you may wish to still use other precautions. For example, you may decide not to mask in a café, but to still sit near an open window or to use a HEPA filter.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| Highest | Hospitals & other healthcare buildings. Education settings such as schools and colleges. Public transport including buses and trains and the London Underground. Very large indoor stadiums or theatres. | Used by people who are much more likely to have Covid. Used by very large numbers of people. | In healthcare and education settings, the risk of encountering a Covid-infected person is high, even if there are not large numbers of users. In very large indoor spaces, you are statistically likely to encounter 13 to 21 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| High | Large cinemas & theatres. Large indoor performing arts venues. Large indoor shopping centres | Used by large numbers of people. | You are statistically likely to encounter 4 to 13 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-High | Larger bars and clubs, Larger supermarkets. Local indoor shopping centres. Large office buildings. | Used by large numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 3 to 6 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants Average sized supermarkets. Smaller offices. Individual larger shops Large indoor heritage or tourism destinations. | Used by medium numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 1 to 3 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-Low | Smaller cinemas, theatres, & performing arts venues. Smaller hotels. Larger individual restaurants. Smaller supermarkets. town Most heritage destinations, eg museums, galleries etc | Used by lower numbers of people. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits (although this risk cannot be excluded). After 1 – 2 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Lower | Small pubs, bars & cafes. Small individual shops. Infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services). Buildings which, at the time of visit, have few people inside them. | Used by small numbers of people. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits (although this risk cannot be excluded). After 5 to 9 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). CAUTION: Some people may feel it is still safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these small spaces in view of the very low infection risk. However, Covid-cautious people using these spaces will wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Lowest | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | SAFEST: No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
More Information
This is BuDS’ 291st Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/. (The paid and free subscriptions are exactly the same, but choosing a paid one gives us a small, regular donation to support our work.)
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.