Articles in Risk Assessments

The Covid wave in England continues to grow very fast. As of 27 September, 1 in every 234 people were infected, up 31% on the previous week. The BuDS overall Covid risk level was Moderately High, but is likely by today (2 October) to be already High. We are now recommending that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places.

Influenza (flu) levels are also starting to rapidly increase, although they are still lower at present. There is every sign that England will have another very bad flu winter wave.

The Covid wave in England is likely continuing to grow, and infection levels as of 27 September were probably between 1 in 249 and 1 in 218 people infected. This is the time to take sensible precautions against catching Covid in all indoor places.

This is a brief update based on estimated growth of Covid in England. The NHS data on which we rely has been significantly delayed, so we cannot give you a more precise figure. However, the trend over the last few weeks is clear: the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life is still rising, and the overall Risk now is almost certainly High. 

The Covid wave in England continues to grow fast. As of 20 September, 1 in every 306 people were infected, up 24% on the previous week. The BuDS overall Covid risk level remains Moderately High.

Influenza (flu) levels are also starting to rapidly increase, although they are still low at present.

Covid infection levels in England are continuing to rise as we move into the autumn. With 1 in every 675 people in England infected as of 6 September, the BuDS overall Covid risk level remains Moderate, but is now approaching Moderately High. These are still lower levels compared to last autumn, but it is now sensible to take precautions including PPE masks in all but lower risk indoor places.

Other respiratory viruses, including flu, remain at low levels but are gradually rising.  

Covid infection levels in England have jumped by a third this week, and we have raised the BuDS overall Covid risk level to Moderate. With 1 in every 857 people in England infected as of 30 August, we now recommend precautions including PPE masks in all but medium and low risk indoor places.

Other respiratory viruses, including flu, remain at low levels but are rising as we move into the autumn.

Covid infection levels in England have stabilised after recent increases. Infection levels remain historically lower, with 1 in every 1120 people in England now infected as of 23 August. The BuDS overall risk level remains Moderately Low.

Other respiratory viruses, including flu, remain at low levels but are rising as we move into the autumn. Precautions against catching Covid remain sensible and proportionate in some indoor areas, but levels are still sufficiently low for them not to be needed in all indoor places.

Covid infection levels in England continue to rise, according to the latest data, and we have once again upgraded our advice about the precautions that are appropriate in different places in response to the greater infection risk.  

That said, infection levels remain historically lower, with 1 in every 1120 people in England now infected as of 16 August. The BuDS overall risk level remains Moderately Low but is likely to rise to Moderate soon. Other respiratory viruses, including flu, remain at low levels but are also showing signs of a rise. It remains sensible and proportionate to take more precautions in some places now, but there is no need for alarm.  

This update replaces the one issued on 19 August. That update included data only to 9 August, but this one uses the latest data to 16 August. Hopefully the NHS will resume its normal cycle of weekly data reporting as the holiday season ends.

Covid infection levels in England have jumped this week, although remaining at historically low levels. With 1 in every 1549 people in England now infected as of 2 August, we have increased the BuDS Covid infection risk level from Low to Moderately Low. Other respiratory viruses remain at low levels, but again there has been a very slight rise.

Covid infection levels in England have again very slightly increased, but this bump is not significant in terms of the infection risk. The BuDS Covid infection risk level remains Low, with 1 in every 2427 people in England now infected as of 26 July. Other respiratory viruses are also at very low levels, but again there has been a very slight rise.

No Sign of a Covid Wave in England

Covid infection levels in England have bumped a little higher over the last few weeks. We continue to feel that these increases mark the end of a trough of exceptionally low levels. We do not think the data yet shows a substantive rise in Covid infection levels in England, and we see no sign of a Covid wave in any of the available data.

Covid infection levels in England have again slightly increased, but the risk remains historically low. The BuDS Covid infection risk level remains Low, with 1 in every 2564 people in England now infected as of 19 July. Other respiratory viruses are also at very low levels, but again there has been a very slight rise.

No Sign of a Covid Wave in England

Covid infection levels in England have bumped a little higher over the last three weeks. However, that increase followed a period of historically very low levels. BuDS’ view remains that England has come to the end of a trough of exceptionally low levels. We do not think the data yet shows a substantive rise in Covid infection levels in England.