Articles in Covid-19

1 in 85 people in England probably now infected. 4 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid remains Very High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 19 February 2024

It is safest to assume that Covid infection levels in England are roughly the same as last week – Covid is NOT declining to a low level. The available data is unclear, but it is certainly safe to say that the risk remains Very High. Everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. There are different estimates available, but we are working on the basis that around 1 in 85 people in England are infected with Covid as of 19 February. See below for more on how we calculated this.

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1 in 63 people in England likely now infected. 5 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid is Very High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 12 February 2024

Covid infection levels in England are probably staying at roughly the same level – Covid is NOT declining to a low level. The risk remains Very High, and everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. There are different estimates available, but we feel that between 1 in 63 and 1 in 70 people are infected with Covid as of 12 February. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 5 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are very likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

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1 in 58 people in England likely now infected. 5 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid is Very High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 4 February 2024

Covid infection levels in England are probably currently slightly declining, or staying at roughly the same level. The risk remains Very High, and everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. We tentatively estimate that around 1 in 58 people are infected with Covid as of 4 February. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 5 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are very likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

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1 in 47 people in England likely now infected. 7 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid rises, and remains Extremely High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 31 January 2024

Covid infection levels in England are currently rising at a slow rate. The risk remains Extremely High, and everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. We estimate that around 1 in 47 people are infected with Covid as of 31 January. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 6 or 7 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be around 2 or 3 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 or 4 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

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1 in 47 people in England likely now infected. 6 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid remains Extremely High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 21 January 2024

Covid infection levels in England remain Extremely High, and it remains essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid. We tentatively estimate that around 1 in 47 people remain infected with Covid, as of 21 January. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 6 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will about 2 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

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1 in 42 people in England likely now infected. 7 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid remains Extremely High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 14 January 2024

Covid infection levels in England remain Extremely High, with between 1 in 32 and 1 in 43 people in England infected with Covid as of 10 January. It remains essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

A range of data shows that ‘we have passed the peak’, i.e. that the near-record levels of Covid infection seen at Christmas are now declining. The number of people infected with Covid today (18 January) is probably between 1 in 42 and 1 in 69. However, even at these lower levels, the risk of catching Covid in your everyday life remains Extremely High.

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Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 7 January 2024

Covid infection levels in England remain at near-record heights, with between 1 in 20 and 1 in every 28 people in England infected with Covid as of 7 January. These remain Critically High levels, and it is essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 13 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 2 or 3 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 6 or 7 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

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1 in 14 people in England likely now infected. 21 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid increases and remains Critically High.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 24 December 2023

Covid infection levels in England have hit near-record heights, with around 1 in every 14 people in England infected with Covid as of 24 December. These are Critically High levels, and it is essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 21 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 3 or 4 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 10 or 11 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

To add to the risk this Christmas and New Year period, there are 2 new variants of the Covid virus circulating. This means that even if you have had Covid recently, of have recently been vaccinated or boosted, you can still catch Covid again and be seriously ill. There is no such thing as immunity against Covid – the virus changes every time people develop immunity.

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1 in 19 people in England likely now infected. 15 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid now Critically High.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 22 December 2023

Covid infection levels in England are Critically High, with around 1 in every 23 people in England infected with Covid, as of 13 December. Today, around 1 in every 19 people are likely to be infected with Covid, and we are expecting infection levels to continue to increase over the Christmas period. These are among the highest Covid levels ever seen in England, and it is essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 13 and 15 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 2 or 3 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be between 9 and 10 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

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