The Covid wave in Bucks has dropped slightly, but the risk of meeting an infected person when out and about remains EXTREMELY HIGH. As of 2 November, we estimate 1 in 34 people in the county were infected with Covid-19. In your average busy supermarket, there will now be nine people breathing out Covid for you to catch.
Our advice remains to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries), breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.
The Pandemic Remains Stubbornly High
In September, more people in Bucks started to catch Covid. This is probably because people’s immunity to Covid from vaccination or a prior infection wore off, so they could catch Covid again. This ‘autumn wave’ of Covid peaked towards the middle of October and then numbers fell again. However, that fall has now stopped, and it is possible that we are about to see another rise as we move into winter.
It’s important to note that we have not yet seen a big wave caused by new Covid virus variants. We saw three huge waves earlier in 2022 due to new variants. Many experts think that there will be a ‘winter wave’ of Covid caused by new variants around Christmas.
Get Boosted & Get A Protective Mask!
If you are eligible for the NHS autumn booster, make sure you take it. If you or your children haven’t yet had all your other Covid vaccinations, get them done now. Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death or serious illness.
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. Wearing an FFP2 or N95 filter mask means that the air in your lungs is clean, even if there is lots of Covid in the air around you. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.
The Risk In Bucks
BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 24 October. This is of course 11 days ago, but it is the most reliable data available. We have carefully calculated the most likely infection data as of 2 November by mathematically extrapolating the trend in the ONS data. If you want to know more, please get in touch.
Using this method, we estimate that 1 in 34 people in Bucks were infected as of 2 November, which is 16,429 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is CRITICALLY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?[1] – 30
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?[2] – 1,782
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?[3] – 3,564
- How many infected people in Amersham?[4] – 804
- How many infected people in Chesham?[5] – 794
- How many infected people in Buckingham?[6] – 446
- How many infected people in Burnham?[7] – 337
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?[8] – 45
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?[9] – 297
- How many infected people at a large public event?[10] – 594
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?[11] – 30
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?[12] – 9
How Is The NHS Coping?
The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals with Covid-19 fell this week, by 33%.
These figures are for 31 October, the latest available:
Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 263.
This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 33% lower than the previous week (395). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.
Total number of people admitted with Covid – 45
This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 20% lower than last week (56).
Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 105
This figure is 33% lower than last week (158).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 18
This figure is 20% lower than last week (22).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Hospitals remain a very dangerous place to be when it comes to Covid-19. One London hospital gave the highest grade FFP3 filter masks to its staff and saw staff Covid infections fall to zero. This proves how important it is to wear a filter mask when attending hospital or other medical appointments.
You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.
Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the number of deaths in Bucks has sadly risen.
There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.
- 31 October, 20 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,466. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
- Between 17 October and 31 October, 22 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,864. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
- Between 7 October and 21 October, 9 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,571. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the twenty sixth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Just over 13,000 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 2 November. This is not only lower than we reported in our last risk assessment, but also once again almost entirely due to the addition of the fifth ‘autumn’ dose to the data. If this is discounted, only 623 doses were given across all age groups.
Effectively, vaccination, other than 5th-dose boosters, remains at a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 2 November:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 4,623 children of the over 51,000 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (9.0%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. 62 people have had 3 doses, and 7,480 young children have had one dose (14.5%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (85.5%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 391 children of the nearly 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.3%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 15,000 secondary-age children have had two doses (48.7%), and 18,721 secondary-age children have had one dose (60.5%). Nearly 4 in 10 (39.5%) secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,857 of the over 14,000 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (19.8%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 9,200 older teenagers have had two doses (63.7%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (74.9%). A quarter (25.1%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 262,936 of the over 380,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (69.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 60,600 adults have had four doses (15.9%), all of which are part of the autumn booster programme. Under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.7%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (85.9%). Over a tenth (14.1%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – 60,876 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had five doses of a vaccine (75.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 44,000 older adults have had four doses (55.1%), just over 75,900 older adults have had three doses (94.5%), just under 77,500 older adults have had two doses (96.4%), and just under 78,000 have had one dose (96.9%). Just under 2,500 (3.1%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 30 August 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking. The fourth ‘autumn booster’ is essential to upgrade and refresh people’s protection.
More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To find out more certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/
How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
Population References
[1] Population of approx. 543973 based on 2018 survey data, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time