Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 12 August 2022

The cautiously good Covid news continues this week, as the current BA.4/5 wave continues to decline. We do not have updated ONS data as yet, but our best estimate of the level of risk in Bucks is that around 1 in 40 residents in Bucks were infected last week. That’s nearly 12,000 people.

1 in 40 people infected means that you still have an EXTREMELY HIGH risk of meeting an infected person at work, at the shops or when out and about. People still now need to stay Covid-Careful, because Covid has NOT gone away.

Don’t feel safe because you have had Covid before or are fully vaccinated. The new variants of the Covid virus making up this third wave have evolved to avoid your immunity, so you are still vulnerable to catching Covid again. Every time you catch Covid-19 increases your chances of being very ill or developing Long Covid, so it is still VITALLY IMPORTANT to protect yourself now, even if you haven’t been Covid-Careful up until now.

Our advice remains to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places, breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.

Get A Protective Mask!

Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is one of the two best ways to protect yourself from Covid (the other is being fully vaccinated and boosted). One of BuDS’ partners, Cambridge Masks Co, are currently offering up to a 70% discount on high-quality, fully-certified reusable FFP2 PPE face masks – you can get a life-saving mask for under £10. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more and get the discounts. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.

The Risk In Bucks

BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data. However, for technical reasons, ONS have not issued an update for 2 August. We have therefore estimated the infection level in Bucks for that date. We did this by applying to the ONS data the general trend of UKHSA test data, which is complete up to DATE. UKHSA test data only captures a small percentage of infected people, but the way that number goes up or down – the trend – is generally the same as the ONS data, which uses a large-scale random sample to estimate the true number of infected people. If you have any questions about this, we will be happy to explain more – just drop us a message.

Using this data and methodology, we estimate that 1 in 40 people in Bucks had Covid, which is 11,872 people.

You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.

A graph showing positive cases. 2nd August, ONS/BuDS estimated 11,872 cases. 9th August UKHSA estimated 1201 cases.

How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?

Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks remains CRITICALLY HIGH.

If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.

How many infected people in every 1000?^[1] – 22
How many infected people in Aylesbury?^[2] – 1,290
How many infected people in High Wycombe?^[3] – 2,851
How many infected people in Amersham?^[4] – 582
How many infected people in Chesham?^[5] – 575
How many infected people in Buckingham?^[6] – 323
How many infected people in Burnham?^[7] – 244
How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?^[8] – 32
How many infected people in a busy town centre?^[9] – 215
How many infected people at a large public event?^[10] – 430
How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?^[11] – 22
How many infected people in a busy supermarket?^[12] – 7

How Is The NHS Coping?

The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals with Covid-19 fell again this week, by 19.9%.

These figures are for 7 August, the latest available:

Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 261.

This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 19.9% lower than the previous week (326). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.

Total number of people admitted with Covid – 75

This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 15.4% higher than last week (65).

Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 104

This figure is 19.9% lower than last week (130).

As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 30

This figure is 15.4% higher than last week (26).

As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.

Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.

Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks

We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the number of deaths in Bucks is sadly remaining high.

There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.

8 August, 14 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,389. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
Between 25 July and 8 August, 20 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,751. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
Between 15 July and 29 July, 11 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,522. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.

Deaths from Covid in Bucks continue at the rate of one to two every DAY. On average, at least one person has died of Covid in Bucks every single day in the last thirty-two weeks.

How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?

For the fifteenth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Less than 800 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 9 August, despite the continued addition of the fourth ‘Spring’ dose to the data. This is significantly less doses than were delivered at the time of our report last week.

Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.

Here are the latest vaccination figures for 9 August:

Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 2,862 children of the over 51,000 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (5.5%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. 3 people have had 3 doses, and 7,200 young children have had one dose (14.1%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (85.9%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 283 children of the nearly 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (0.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 15,000 secondary-age children have had two doses (49.4%), and less than 20,000 secondary-age children have had one dose (63.0%). Over a third (37.0%) of secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 3,019 of the over 14,000 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (21.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,200 older teenagers have had two doses (64.5%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (75.9%). Nearly a quarter (24.1%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 262,273 of the nearly 380,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (69.0%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.9%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (86.1%). Over a tenth (13.9%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Adults (aged over 70) – Only 44,635 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had four doses of a vaccine (55.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 75,000 older adults have had three doses (94.1%), just over 77,000 older adults have had two doses (96.3%), and just over 77,000 have had one dose (96.8%). More than 2,500 (3.2%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19

Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 14 June 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking.

Offers & More Information

If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.

To find out more about the discounts for certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/

How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/

All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/

To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/

We Are Here To Help!

BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.