The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in England at New Year remains Moderately High. 1 in every 296 people were infected as of 29 December, a slight decrease over the last week. However, influenza cases are still rising, although less quickly than last week. If you don’t want to be ill for New Year, now is the time to be taking precautions.
As a statistical example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have 1 infected person breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have an infected person breathing out virus every 3 or 4 journeys. There will be an infected person beathing our virus in every two busy train carriages. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be 1 or 2 infected people.
England continues to experience a massive influenza wave, but Covid levels are still remaining roughly static. It is becoming increasingly likely that people catching influenza, or being vaccinated against it, are also acquiring a partial and temporary immunity to Covid infections. In effect, the current influenza vaccination campaign and infection wave are suppressing the expected winter Covid. We are still likely to see a huge Covid wave in early 2025, because Covid never goes away.
It may seem like good news that England is not experiencing the huge Christmas and New Year Covid wave that we have seen in previous years. However, that wave has only been delayed by the suppressing effect of a damaging influenza wave. In effect, we have exchanged a single wave of two damaging respiratory viruses for two successive waves, each of one damaging respiratory virus. Good public health would mean the population would not be exposed to these waves of disease at all.
Covid and flu vaccinations can no longer be booked online, but you may be able to get a free NHS vaccination through your GP. We strongly recommend that everyone, but particularly disabled and clinically vulnerable people, seek a vaccination. Covid and flu vaccinations are also available privately online and through larger pharmacies. Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
Remember: Covid and flu are airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice, use this link.
Hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid, because there are no Covid precautions in NHS buildings. NHS staff are also required to work even if they have Covid. Unless your visit is essential, we recommend that you avoid hospitals and GP practices, and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
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This is BuDS’ 208th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are now the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. Our appeal for funds to safeguard our Covid information project for 2025 closes on 4 January 2025, and we are very close to our target. Please consider making a donation if you are able to do so. https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-info.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.