Covid infection levels in England continue to remain roughly flat, and the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life remains Moderately High. There has been no significant change in Covid risk for five weeks now. 1 in every 259 people were infected as of 22 December. However, influenza cases continue to rise rapidly.
As a statistical example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have 1 or 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have an infected person breathing out virus every 2 or 3 journeys. There will be an infected person breathing out virus in every two busy train carriages. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 2 infected people.
It remains clear from the data that England is experiencing a huge and ongoing influenza wave, but Covid levels are remaining static. It is known that influenza infections and vaccinations can give a partial and temporary immunity to Covid infections, so it is possible that the current influenza vaccination campaign and infection wave are together delaying the start of the Winter Covid wave. There is also a lot of lingering temporary immunity in the population from the Autumn Covid waves.
We are still likely to see a huge Covid wave in early 2025. The start of the Winter Covid wave is being postponed – Covid never goes away, and we will always see waves of infection until we start stopping the spread of the virus. The NHS is already under very severe pressure from the influenza wave. A postponed Covid wave does potentially reduce peak demand, but it also means that demand will remain very high for a longer period. Only time will tell whether a shorter, more intense Winter infection wave is more or less damaging to the NHS and the nation’s health than two successive waves.
The key takeaway from the current situation is that there is still a lot of Covid in circulation (the risk remains Moderately High), and there is a huge amount of flu and other respiratory viruses. The same precautions will protect you against Covid, flu, and other airborne viruses. If you don’t want to be ill for Christmas and New Year, now is the time to be taking precautions.
Covid and flu vaccinations can no longer be booked online, but you may be able to get a free NHS vaccination through your GP. We strongly recommend that everyone, but particularly disabled and clinically vulnerable people, seek a vaccination. Covid and flu vaccinations are also available privately online and through larger pharmacies. Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
Remember: Covid and flu are airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice, use this link.
Hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid, because there are no Covid precautions in NHS buildings. NHS staff are also required to work even if they have Covid. Unless your visit is essential, we recommend that you avoid hospitals and GP practices, and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
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This is BuDS’ 207th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are now the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We are raising funds to safeguard our Covid information project for 2025. Please consider making a donation if you are able to do so. https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-info.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.