The long period of static Covid infection levels in England has ended, with a 70% increase in the last week. The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in England remains Moderately High, with 1 in every 214 people infected as of 5 January. Influenza infections remain extremely high, but may have reached their peak.
As a statistical example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have 1 or 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have an infected person breathing out virus every 3 or 4 journeys. There will be an infected person breathing out virus in most busy train carriages. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be at least 2 infected people.
Although it is too early to be sure, it looks like England will have a ‘Twin Peaks’ winter of infections. The influenza wave is likely peaking, and flu infections will probably fall back over January and February. However, on the data we have so far, Covid is likely to build to a peak over the same period, because people’s temporary immunity from the Autumn wave will be coming to an end. Remember – Covid never goes away, and will never go away until we clean the air.
It is not a coincidence that Covid levels are starting to rise just as influenza levels start to fall. It is known that catching or being vaccinated against influenza can give temporary and partial immunity to catching Covid. On the current mix of Covid variants in circulation, it looks as if this cross immunity is leading to successive waves rather than one gigantic mixed wave of both influenza and Covid.
This is BuDS’ 209th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are now the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people.
Covid and flu vaccinations can no longer be booked online, but you may be able to get a free NHS vaccination through your GP. We strongly recommend that everyone, but particularly disabled and clinically vulnerable people, seek a vaccination. Covid and flu vaccinations are also available privately online and through larger pharmacies. Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
Remember: Covid and flu are airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice, use this link.
Hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid and influenza, because there are no Covid precautions in NHS buildings. NHS staff are also required to work even if they have Covid. Unless your visit is essential, we recommend that you avoid hospitals and GP practices, and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
Our free Covid Information Substack has been read over 1,500 times in the last month. If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here. https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
We are delighted to announce that our appeal for funds to safeguard our Covid information project for 2025 has exceeded its target. Thank you to everyone who was able to donate – we deeply appreciate your support. If you’d like to make a last minute donation before we close the appeal, you can do so here. https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-info.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.