Related articles in Covid-19

1 in 196 people in England likely now infected. Early signs that Autumn Wave is building. Moderately High risk of meeting someone with Covid.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 1 September 2024

Covid infection levels remain MODERATELY HIGH, but there are early signs that the Autumn Wave is building. Currently, around 1 in 196 people in England were infected with Covid as of 1 September. We expect the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life to start rising again as we move through September.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 1 or 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. Roughly, if you travel on 3 full single decker buses, you will encounter 1 infected person over those 3 journeys. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 3 infected people. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

The reopening of schools, colleges, and universities will inevitably increase Covid transmission in the community. International research shows that education settings are primary drivers of Covid infection. There are also some competitive new variants in circulation, and people who caught Covid in the late Spring and early Summer will now have limited immunity against catching Covid again. At the moment, sadly, we see now reason to revise our previous prediction of an Autumn wave in September and October, running into a large Winter wave.

We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 1 September. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 196 people in England with Covid as of 1 September is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.

Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.

BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.