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Covid infection levels in England are probably currently slightly declining, or staying at roughly the same level. The risk remains Very High, and everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. We tentatively estimate that around 1 in 58 people are infected with Covid as of 4 February. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 5 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are very likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

Covid infection levels in England are currently rising at a slow rate. The risk remains Extremely High, and everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. We estimate that around 1 in 47 people are infected with Covid as of 31 January. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 6 or 7 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be around 2 or 3 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 or 4 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

Covid infection levels in England remain Extremely High, and it remains essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid. We tentatively estimate that around 1 in 47 people remain infected with Covid, as of 21 January. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 6 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will about 2 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

Covid infection levels in England remain Extremely High, with between 1 in 32 and 1 in 43 people in England infected with Covid as of 10 January. It remains essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

A range of data shows that ‘we have passed the peak’, i.e. that the near-record levels of Covid infection seen at Christmas are now declining. The number of people infected with Covid today (18 January) is probably between 1 in 42 and 1 in 69. However, even at these lower levels, the risk of catching Covid in your everyday life remains Extremely High.

Covid infection levels in England remain at near-record heights, with between 1 in 20 and 1 in every 28 people in England infected with Covid as of 7 January. These remain Critically High levels, and it is essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 13 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 2 or 3 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 6 or 7 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

Covid infection levels in England have hit near-record heights, with around 1 in every 14 people in England infected with Covid as of 24 December. These are Critically High levels, and it is essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 21 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 3 or 4 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 10 or 11 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

To add to the risk this Christmas and New Year period, there are 2 new variants of the Covid virus circulating. This means that even if you have had Covid recently, of have recently been vaccinated or boosted, you can still catch Covid again and be seriously ill. There is no such thing as immunity against Covid – the virus changes every time people develop immunity.

Covid infection levels in England are Critically High, with around 1 in every 23 people in England infected with Covid, as of 13 December. Today, around 1 in every 19 people are likely to be infected with Covid, and we are expecting infection levels to continue to increase over the Christmas period. These are among the highest Covid levels ever seen in England, and it is essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 13 and 15 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 2 or 3 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be between 9 and 10 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

Covid infection levels in England continue their relentless slow increase, with around 1 in every 37 people in England now infected with Covid. (This is also the rate and risk for Bucks). As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 6 and 11 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. The risk level remains Extremely High.

Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.

Covid infection levels in England relentlessly continue to rise, with around 1 in every 39 people in England now infected with Covid. (This is also the rate and risk for Bucks). As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 6 and 11 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. Remember, Covid spreads mainly through the air.

The risk level remains Extremely High. Infection levels are now the same as they were in mid-December 2022, at the beginning of the huge winter wave. If current trends continue, we should reach Critically High levels (more than 1 in every 25 people infected) in the next 6 to 8 weeks.

We are still seeing a steady week-on-week increase in Covid infections rather than a very steep peak. This suggests that the new Covid variant BA.2.86 is not yet infecting large numbers of people. A new variant which is highly infectious and escapes previous immunity usually causes a very sharp peak in infections. However, the criminal lack of Covid surveillance in the UK makes it hard to be sure.  

Alert: Hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.