Covid infection levels in England are probably currently slightly declining, or staying at roughly the same level. The risk remains Very High, and everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. We tentatively estimate that around 1 in 58 people are infected with Covid as of 4 February. See below for more on how we calculated this.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 5 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are very likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
We have used data taken from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) Winter Infection Survey as the starting point for the estimates above. The last Winter Infection Survey (WIS) covers up to 24 January. To give disabled and clinically vulnerable people a credible assessment of the current risk (as of 4 February), we have used data from the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) report dated 4 February. Our estimates are tentative, because the NOIDS data does not always match changes in Covid infection levels. However, we do feel that our estimates are sufficiently credible for disabled and clinically vulnerable people to use as a way of assessing the risk of catching Covid. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.