Covid infection levels in England remain at near-record heights, with between 1 in 20 and 1 in every 28 people in England infected with Covid as of 7 January. These remain Critically High levels, and it is essential that everyone takes precautions to avoid catching Covid.
As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 13 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 2 or 3 infected people breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 6 or 7 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are extremely likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
To add to the risk, there are 2 new variants of the Covid virus circulating. This means that even if you have had Covid recently, of have recently been vaccinated or boosted, you can still catch Covid again and be seriously ill. There is no such thing as immunity against Covid – the virus changes every time people develop immunity.
UKHSA have published modelled data suggesting that Covid infection levels reduced over Christmas and New Year. However, the way this data has been modelled has been questioned, and it may be that Covid infection levels remained roughly the same over Christmas and New Year. Our estimates above uses both sources of data.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
We have used data taken from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) Winter Infection Survey as the starting point for the estimates above. The last Winter Infection Survey covers up to 3 January. To give disabled and clinically vulnerable people a credible assessment of the current risk (as of 7 January), we have used data from the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) report dated 7 January. We have used the NOIDS data to calculate the likely changes in national Covid infection levels. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.