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Current Covid infection levels remain VERY HIGH, with at least 1 in 102 people in England infected with Covid as of 4 August. However, all the available data suggests the ‘Late Summer Wave’ of Covid is beginning to decline. See below for more on how we calculated this.

Current Covid infection levels remain VERY HIGH, with at least 1 in 89 people in England infected with Covid as of 28 July. The ‘Late Summer Wave’ of Covid continues to infect hundreds of thousands of people across England. See below for more on how we calculated this.

The ‘Late Summer Wave’ of Covid is rapidly growing, with the number of infected people in England up by nearly a fifth in only one week. All the signs are that England will see an extremely high (above 1 in 50) peak of Covid infections in August. Current infection levels are VERY HIGH, with around 1 in 82 people in England infected with Covid as of 21 July. See below for more on how we calculated this.

We are now tentatively calling the start of a ‘Late Summer Wave’ of Covid, driven by new variants of the virus. This late summer wave, which has already started to grow, will probably dominate August and September – see below for details. For the present, infection levels remain VERY HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 99 people in England are infected with Covid as of 14 July. See below for more on how we calculated this.

The Summer Wave of Covid remains a serious public health risk this week, with infection levels remaining VERY HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 104 people in England are infected with Covid as of 7 July. See below for more on how we calculated this.

The Summer Wave of Covid continues to get worse, with infection levels remaining VERY HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 99 people in England are infected with Covid as of 30 June. See below for more on how we calculated this.

The Summer Wave of Covid has got significantly worse, with infection levels jumping to VERY HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 103 people in England are infected with Covid as of 23 June. See below for more.

The Summer Wave of Covid remain stubbornly present, with infection levels remaining HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 171 people in England are infected with Covid as of 2 June. See below for more on how we calculated this.

The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains HIGH. As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will possibly be 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if you happen to use a bus that has 4 or 5 infected people on board. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

We are not expecting a significant decline in Covid infection levels over the next few weeks, and we may see an increase after school, college, and university exams finish.

We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) report dated 2 June, plus UKHSA data about cases. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 171 people in England with Covid as of 2 June is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.

This latest Covid wave is being driven by new sub-variants of the virus, coupled with the weakening of people’s temporary acquired immunity from earlier this year. This combination of reduced acquired immunity and new variants means that EVERYONE, even people who have caught Covid recently, will probably catch it again this summer unless they take precautions. Remember, vaccination reduces the risk of very severe disease, it does not stop you from catching Covid and being very ill at home.

Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.

BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

The Summer Wave of Covid shows no sign of going away, with infection levels remaining HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 156 people in England are infected with Covid as of 26 May. See below for more on how we calculated this.