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The Summer Wave of Covid continues, with infection levels remaining HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 136 people in England are infected with Covid as of 19 May. See below for more on how we calculated this.

At the moment, there is a mismatch between the available data about Covid levels and people’s reported experience of Covid (anecdotal data). While the data suggests a High level (between 1 in 100 and 1 in 200 infected people), the anecdotal data suggests a Very High level (between 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 infected people). One mathematical model suggests that infection levels could be Extremely High (1 in 25 to 1 in 50 infected people). Our advice to disabled and clinically vulnerable people is to assume that Covid levels may be higher than the data suggests. Taking precautions as if the risk was higher will protect you, even if the risk happens to be lower.

The Summer Wave of Covid continues to grow, with infection levels up by a fifth (18%) this week. Using all available data, we estimate that around 1 in 125 people in England are infected with Covid, as of 19 May. See below for more on how we calculated this.

The next Covid wave is growing very fast in England, with infection levels up by a fifth (21%) this week. Using all available data, we estimate that around 1 in 162 people in England are infected with Covid, as of 5 May. See below for more on how we calculated this.

A new Covid wave is probably coming in England. That’s our tentative view after looking at all the available data. At the moment, Covid levels appear to be remaining roughly the same, and the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains HIGH. Everyone still needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid, because Covid has not gone away. Around 1 in 200 people in England are infected with Covid, as of 21 April. See below for more on how we calculated this.

Covid infection levels in England seem to be remaining roughly the same, and the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains HIGH. Everyone still needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid, because Covid has not gone away. Around 1 in 200 people in England are infected with Covid, as of 7 April. See below for more on how we calculated this.

Covid infection levels in England have stopped reducing, and seem to be remaining roughly the same. The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains HIGH. Everyone still needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid, because Covid has not gone away. Around 1 in 158 people in England are infected with Covid, as of 17 March. See below for more on how we calculated this.

Although Covid infection levels are declining in England, the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains HIGH. Everyone still needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid, because Covid has not gone away. Around 1 in 143 people in England are infected with Covid, as of 6 March. See below for more on how we calculated this.

It is safest to assume that Covid infection levels in England are roughly the same as last week – Covid is NOT declining to a low level. The available data is unclear, but it is certainly safe to say that the risk remains Very High. Everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. There are different estimates available, but we are working on the basis that around 1 in 85 people in England are infected with Covid as of 19 February. See below for more on how we calculated this.

Covid infection levels in England are probably staying at roughly the same level – Covid is NOT declining to a low level. The risk remains Very High, and everyone needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid. There are different estimates available, but we feel that between 1 in 63 and 1 in 70 people are infected with Covid as of 12 February. See below for more on how we calculated this.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 5 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 3 infected people breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you are very likely to catch Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.