Is the rate of increase in Covid-19 cases in Bucks slowing down?

The graph below shows that the rate at which the calculated number of infected people in Bucks is increasing seems to be slowing down – the calculated increase for week ending 10 January was only 5%. However, the more reliable ONS Infection Survey data, available to 27 December 2021, has always shown a higher total than figures derived from reported test data and so far continues to indicate a continuing high rate of increase.

BuDS is therefore reserving judgement on whether the number of infected people in Bucks is indeed plateauing. While it is not impossible that the ONS data when released will also show a decline in the rate of increase, it is also possible (as has happened before) that this week’s reported total cases will be revised upward as lags in the system work out.

Technical Note: BuDS uses a calculated two-week rolling total of Covid-infected people in Bucks to compensate for the number of cases which are not picked up by community testing. We use this measure because we feel it gives people the best idea of the risk they face of meeting an infected person in the community. We compare our calculated total with the retrospective ONS Infection Survey to check that it is accurate and, over the period of the pandemic, our calculated total has consistently closely tracked the ONS total, proving its validity. We keep the calculation method under constant review but, so long as it continues to generate totals which are retrospectively corroborated by the ONS Infection Survey, we do not see any need to change it.