The Summer Wave of Covid has got significantly worse, with infection levels jumping to VERY HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 103 people in England are infected with Covid as of 23 June. See below for more.
The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life has jumped to VERY HIGH. As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 3 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 2 infected people breathing out virus. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if you happen to use a bus that has 4 or 5 infected people on board. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
We are not expecting a significant decline in Covid infection levels over the next few weeks. We may see this current wave continue at a high level and merge into the Autumn Wave (expected in September). Student exams may well keep this current wave climbing until late July.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) report dated 23 June, plus UKHSA data about cases. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 103 people in England with Covid as of 23 June is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
This latest Covid wave is being driven by new sub-variants of the virus, coupled with the weakening of people’s temporary acquired immunity from earlier this year. This combination of reduced acquired immunity and new variants means that EVERYONE, even people who have caught Covid recently, will probably catch it again this summer unless they take precautions. Remember, vaccination reduces the risk of very severe disease, it does not stop you from catching Covid and being very ill at home.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.