Articles in Risk Assessments

Covid-19 Risk Assessments

Articles in Risk Assessments

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The Thinking Behind The New BuDS Covid-19 Risk Assessment – April 2023

Ben Clark

Introduction

BuDS have produced 141 weekly Covid-19 risk assessments using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey. However, the Government have withdrawn funding for the Infection Survey, and the last weekly data was published on 24 March, covering the period up to 13 March.

BuDS have carried out an options appraisal on what to do now, and have decided to continue to publish a short weekly risk assessment using the best available Covid-19 data. We will also publish a monthly Covid-19 bulletin with full weekly deaths, hospitalisations, and vaccinations data.

This paper explains how BuDS have decided to use the Zoe Study as the basis for our weekly Covid-19 risk assessments from April 2023 onwards. It also explains the mathematical methodology we use and how we present the data.

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1 in 22 people in Bucks now infected. Covid Risk now CRITICALLY HIGH. Every week, 10,000 Bucks people have Covid. 14 infected People in Every Busy Supermarket.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 24 March 2023

Ben Clark

Covid infections in Bucks nearly doubled last week. The Covid risk has been raised to Critically High, with more people with Covid going into hospital.  

This is the last risk post in this format, as the Government have deliberately closed the Office for National Statistics’ Coronavirus Infection Survey, which measures how many people have Covid in the UK. However, we will continue publishing risk assessments using other data – more on this next week.  

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1 in 45 people in Bucks now infected. Covid Risk remains EXTREMELY HIGH. Every week, 10,000 Bucks people have Covid. 7 infected People in Every Busy Supermarket.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 17 March 2023

Ben Clark

Covid infections in Bucks remained constant last week. The Covid risk remains Extremely High, with more people with Covid going into hospital.

The Government have made several changes recently to hide the true extent of Covid in the UK. One of these changes is that they are stopping the ONS Infection Survey, which is the most reliable way of finding out how many people have Covid in the UK. Because of this, next week’s risk post will be the last in this format. To find out more about these changes, and BuDS’ reaction to them, use the link below.

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1 in 39 people in Bucks now infected. Covid Risk remains EXTREMELY HIGH. Every week, 10,000 Bucks people have Covid. 8 infected People in Every Busy Supermarket.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 10 March 2023

Ben Clark

Covid infections in Bucks increased last week, with no sign yet that the current wave has peaked. The Covid risk remains Extremely High. It is unclear whether the current wave, driven mainly by XBB variants, will continue to build.

People are asking why we still issue Covid risk assessments when so many people have stopped taking notice of Covid. The reality is that over 10,000 people have Covid every week in Bucks, and their health is getting worse all the time. Nearly all doctors now believe that Covid causes serious long-term effects for many people who catch it, even if they are not very ill immediately. Covid is destroying the health of Buckinghamshire, one infection at a time.

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1 in 43 people in Bucks now infected. Covid Risk remains EXTREMELY HIGH. Big jump in people in hospital with Covid. 7 infected People in Every Busy Supermarket.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 3 March 2023

Ben Clark

Covid infections in Bucks stayed roughly the same last week, with no sign yet that the current wave has peaked. The Covid risk remains Extremely High, and the number of people in hospital with Covid has jumped up by nearly a third.

People are asking why we still issue Covid risk assessments when so many people have stopped taking notice of Covid. The reality is that over 10,000 people have Covid every week in Bucks, and their health is getting worse all the time. Nearly all doctors now believe that Covid causes serious long-term effects for many people who catch it, even if they are not very ill immediately. Covid is destroying the health of Buckinghamshire, one infection at a time.

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Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 24 February 2023

Ben Clark

Levels of Covid infection in Bucks in 2023 dipped slightly last week, because it was half-term. But levels remain Extremely High and taking Covid precautions is still essential. We expect Covid infection levels to rise again as schools and colleges resume after half-term and parents go back to work.

Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid. Even people who caught Covid in January 2023 may be able to catch it again in February or March.

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Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 17 February 2023

Ben Clark

The second wave of Covid in Bucks in 2023 continues to grow, with 1 in 28 people in Bucks now infected. Even if you don’t usually take Covid precautions, now is the time to do so.

We anticipate that we will raise the Covid risk level in Bucks to Critically High next week, as Covid levels race back to the sort of levels seen in January and last year.  There will be 11 infected people in a typical busy supermarket and so it is very likely that you will catch Covid in public indoor places if you don’t take sensible precautions.

Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid. Even people who caught Covid in January 2023 may be able to catch it again in February or March.

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Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 10 February 2023

Ben Clark

We are calling it: the next Covid wave in Bucks has started. After a couple of weeks of lower infection levels, the number of people with Covid in Bucks is now shooting up again. The second wave of Covid in Bucks in 2023 has started. And it’s only February!

We have raised the Covid risk level in Bucks to EXTREMELY HIGH, meaning that 1 in 36 people in Bucks are infected, and there will be 8 infected people in a typical busy supermarket. It is now very likely that you will catch Covid in public indoor places if you don’t take sensible precautions.

Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid. Even people who caught Covid in January 2023 may be able to catch it again in February or March.

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Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 3 February 2023

Ben Clark

The Covid wave in Bucks remains for the moment at the ‘bottom of the peak’. But while levels are low by comparison with earlier in the year, the Covid risk still remains VERY HIGH. 1 in 78 people in Bucks are infected, and there will be 4 infected people in a typical busy supermarket. There are still enough people around to give you Covid if you don’t take care.

Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid. Even people who caught Covid in the last few weeks may be able to catch it again in February.

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Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 27 January 2023

Ben Clark

The Covid wave in Bucks is at the ‘bottom of the peak’. But while levels are low by comparison with earlier in the year, the Covid risk remains VERY HIGH. 1 in 74 people in Bucks are still infected, and there will be 4 infected people in a typical busy supermarket. There are still enough people around to give you Covid if you don’t take care.

Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid. Even people who caught Covid in the last few weeks may be able to catch it again in February.

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