Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 17 February 2023

The second wave of Covid in Bucks in 2023 continues to grow, with 1 in 28 people in Bucks now infected. Even if you don’t usually take Covid precautions, now is the time to do so.

We anticipate that we will raise the Covid risk level in Bucks to Critically High next week, as Covid levels race back to the sort of levels seen in January and last year. There will be 11 infected people in a typical busy supermarket and so it is very likely that you will catch Covid in public indoor places if you don’t take sensible precautions.

Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid. Even people who caught Covid in January 2023 may be able to catch it again in February or March.

Our strong advice remains to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries), breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.

It is scientifically proven that Covid has hidden serious effects for many people who catch it, even if they are not very ill immediately, including making it more likely that they will get seriously ill with common infections. This is why we are continuing to stress that people should take precautions to avoid catching Covid.

Get Vaccinated & Get A Protective Mask!
The Risk In Bucks This Week
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
How Is The NHS Coping?
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
More Information
We Are Here To Help!
Population References

Get Vaccinated & Get A Protective Mask!

Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death or serious illness. You can no longer get a booster (the NHS stopped the programme last week) but adults and teenagers can still get free vaccination if you haven’t had your first three ‘primary’ doses. If this is you, please ask your GP or book a vaccination now.

Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. Wearing an FFP2 or N95 filter mask means that the air in your lungs is clean, even if there is lots of Covid in the air around you. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.

The Risk In Bucks This Week

BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 7 February. This is of course 10 days ago, but it is the latest reliable data available. We have mathematically extrapolated the trend in the ONS data to give an indication of how many people are infected now, rather than 10 days ago.

Our extrapolation last week was within 0.05% of the actual ONS data, showing how accurately we work.

We estimate that 1 in 28 people in Bucks were infected as of 15 February, which is 19,864 people.

You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph below.

A graph showing positive Covid cases. BuDS/ONS estimated 19,864 cases on 15 February. UKHSA estimated 623 cases on 15 February.

How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?

Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is EXTREMELY HIGH, on the edge of Critically High.

If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.

How many infected people in every 1000?^[1] – 36
How many infected people in Aylesbury?^[2] – 2,155
How many infected people in High Wycombe?^[3] – 4,310
How many infected people in Amersham?^[4] – 972
How many infected people in Chesham?^[5] – 960
How many infected people in Buckingham?^[6] – 539
How many infected people in Burnham?^[7] – 408
How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?^[8] – 54
How many infected people in a busy town centre?^[9] – 359
How many infected people at a large public event?^[10] – 718
How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?^[11] – 36
How many infected people in a busy supermarket?^[12] – 11

How Is The NHS Coping?

The NHS is struggled to cope, and it is likely that these figures underestimate the true number of infected people in hospital, simply because staff have been too busy to do routine testing.

The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals tested and found to be positive for Covid-19 fell very slightly this week, by 1.6%. Notably, the number of people found to have Covid-19 upon admission almost halved, which contradicts the rise in infections we are seeing in the ONS data. Despite this, the number of people catching Covid in hospital actually rose by 8.3%, emphasising how dangerous hospitals are for Covid-19.

These figures are for 13 February, the latest available:

Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 249.

This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 1.6% lower than the previous week (253). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.

Total number of people admitted with Covid – 27

This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 43.8% lower than last week (48).

Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 100

This figure is 1.6% lower than last week (101).

As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 11

This figure is 43.8% lower than last week (19).

As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

Hospitals remain a very dangerous place to be when it comes to Covid-19, and it is very important to wear a filter mask when attending hospital or other medical appointments.

You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed the last 12 months on the graphs below.

Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.

Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks

We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. According to all 3 of the measures we use, deaths have risen this week in Bucks.

There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.

13 February, 16 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,580. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.

Between 30 January and 13 February, 24 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 2022. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
Between 20 January and 3 February, 12 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,644. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.

How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?

For the forty first week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Just over 450 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 15 February. This is once again mainly due to the addition of the fifth ‘autumn booster’ dose to the data, and much higher than last week. The reason for this is likely to be a last-minute rush to get boosted before the NHS closed the booster programme. BuDS expects to see a rapid fall off in the number of doses over the next few weeks, as this surge comes to an end. If the ‘autumn booster’ doses are discounted, only 192 doses were given across all age groups.

Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.

Here are the latest vaccination figures for 15 February:

Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 5,012 children of the 51,624 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (9.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. 204 children have had 3 doses, and 7,253 young children have had one dose (14.0%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (86.0%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 534 children of the over 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Under 14,600 secondary-age children have had two doses (46.6%), and 17,949 secondary-age children have had one dose (57.5%). More than 4 in 10 (42.5%) secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,722 of the over 14,500 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (18.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,100 older teenagers have had two doses (62.6%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (73.9%). Over a quarter (26.1%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 263,173 of the over 382,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (68.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 93,600 adults have had four doses (24.5%), all of which are part of the autumn booster programme. Under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.4%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (85.6%). Over a tenth (14.4%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Adults (aged over 70) – 68,786 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had five doses of a vaccine (85.4%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 44,000 older adults have had four doses (54.1%), just over 76,000 older adults have had three doses (94.6%), just over 77,600 older adults have had two doses (96.4%), and just over 78,000 have had one dose (96.9%). Just under 2,500 (3.1%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19

Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 20 December 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking.

More Information

If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.

To see the range available from Cambridge Masks Co: https://cambridgemask.com/

All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/

To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/

We Are Here To Help!

BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.