The Covid wave in Bucks remains for the moment at the ‘bottom of the peak’. But while levels are low by comparison with earlier in the year, the Covid risk still remains VERY HIGH. 1 in 78 people in Bucks are infected, and there will be 4 infected people in a typical busy supermarket. There are still enough people around to give you Covid if you don’t take care.
Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid. Even people who caught Covid in the last few weeks may be able to catch it again in February.
Our advice remains to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries), breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.
It is scientifically proven that Covid has hidden serious effects for many people who catch it, even if they are not very ill immediately, including making it more likely that they will get seriously ill with common infections. This is why we are continuing to stress that people should take precautions to avoid catching Covid.
- Get Boosted & Get A Protective Mask!
- What Next?
- Last Chance for Many People to Get Vaccination Changes
- The Risk In Bucks this Week
- How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
- How Is The NHS Coping?
- Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
- How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
- More Information
- We Are Here To Help!
- Population References
Get Boosted & Get A Protective Mask!
If you are eligible for the NHS autumn booster, make sure you take it. If you or your children haven’t yet had all your other Covid vaccinations, get them done now. Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death or serious illness.
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. Wearing an FFP2 or N95 filter mask means that the air in your lungs is clean, even if there is lots of Covid in the air around you. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.
What Next?
For the second week, we haven’t extended the ONS Infection Survey data to give a more up to date picture. A lot of other data suggests that the next wave of Covid is already starting to happen, but the ONS data is always at least a week old, so we are not yet seeing the next wave in the data.
Last Chance for Many People to Get Vaccination Changes
The Government have announced that they are stopping Covid vaccination booster doses for most adults from Sunday 12 February. Because the protection given by Covid vaccination wears off quickly, most countries ‘top up’ vaccine protection every so often with booster doses. But the UK Government has now said they are stopping boosters for most adults. Only extremely clinically vulnerable adults will be offered boosters in future. This will make vaccinated adults more vulnerable to severe Covid illness.
The Government is also stopping all routine Covid vaccination of children aged under 5 – only ‘high risk’ young children will be eligible for vaccination. Again, this will increase the number of children who will get severely ill with Covid.
Children over 5 and all young people and adults are still eligible for free ‘primary’ vaccination against Covid. This means the first, second and (for adults) third vaccine doses.
The reason given for these changes is that Covid vaccination is not ‘cost-effective’ for the groups who are losing boosters or vaccination.
You can read more about these changes in our article ‘Vaccination Changes’ – see link below.
The Risk In Bucks this Week
BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 24 January. This is of course 10 days ago, but it is the latest reliable data available.
We estimate that 1 in 78 people in Bucks were infected as of 24 January, which is 7,113 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks remains VERY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?[1] – 13
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?[2] – 772
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?[3] – 1,543
- How many infected people in Amersham?[4] – 348
- How many infected people in Chesham?[5] – 344
- How many infected people in Buckingham?[6] – 193
- How many infected people in Burnham?[7] – 146
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?[8] – 19
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?[9] – 129
- How many infected people at a large public event?[10] – 257
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?[11] – 13
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?[12] – 4
How Is The NHS Coping?
The NHS has struggled hugely recently, and it is likely that these figures underestimate the true number of infected people in hospital, simply because staff have been too busy to do routine testing.
The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals tested and found to be positive for Covid-19 fell this week, by 12%.
These figures are for 30 January, the latest available:
Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 176.
This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 12% lower than the previous week (200). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.
Total number of people admitted with Covid – 25
This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 24.2% lower than last week (33).
Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 70
This figure is 12% lower than last week (80).
As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 10
This figure is 24.2% lower than last week (13).
As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Hospitals remain a very dangerous place to be when it comes to Covid-19, and it is very important to wear a filter mask when attending hospital or other medical appointments.
You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.
Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. According to all of the 3 measures we use, deaths have stayed roughly the same this week in Bucks.
There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.
- 30 January, 11 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,558. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
- Between 16 January and 30 January, 14 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,990. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
- Between 6 January and 20 January, 12 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,632. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the thirty ninth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Just over 340 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 1 February. This is once again mainly due to the addition of the fifth ‘autumn booster’ dose to the data, and only slightly higher than last week. If this is discounted, only 127 doses were given across all age groups.
Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 1 February:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 4,994 children of the 51,622 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (9.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. 200 children have had 3 doses, and 7,316 young children have had one dose (14.2%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (85.8%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 501 children of the over 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.6%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 14,600 secondary-age children have had two doses (46.9%), and 18,018 secondary-age children have had one dose (57.9%). More than 4 in 10 (42.1%) secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,718 of the over 14,500 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (18.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,100 older teenagers have had two doses (62.7%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (74.0%). Over a quarter (26.0%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 263,309 of the over 381,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (68.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 93,300 adults have had four doses (24.4%), all of which are part of the autumn booster programme. Under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.5%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (85.7%). Over a tenth (14.3%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – 68,670 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had five doses of a vaccine (85.3%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 44,000 older adults have had four doses (54.2%), just over 76,000 older adults have had three doses (94.5%), just over 77,600 older adults have had two doses (96.4%), and just over 78,000 have had one dose (96.9%). Just under 2,500 (3.1%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 6 December 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking.
More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To see our full article on vaccination changes: https://buds.org.uk/vaccination-changes/
To see the range available from Cambridge Masks Co: https://cambridgemask.com/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
Population References
[1] Population of approx. 553,100 based on 2021 survey data
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time