There is continuing cautious good news about the Covid-19 pandemic in Bucks. The number of infected people is continuing to fall, but only very slowly. However, with 1 in 57 people in Bucks infected with Covid-19, the risk of catching Covid when out and about in Bucks is still VERY HIGH.
BuDS still urges everyone to be Covid-Cautious and keep taking sensible precautions against catching Covid-19. To repeat: the chances of coming across a person with Covid in your everyday life is still VERY HIGH. Wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places, breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends.
Because the number of infected people in Bucks has reduced, BuDS has lowered the Covid-19 risk level to very high. Remember that a very high risk is exactly what it sounds like – you have a very high risk of catching Covid-19 in your everyday life if you don’t take precautions.
BuDS will let continue to keep you up to date every week.
Pandemic Update
The number of people infected with Omicron BA.2 continues to fall slowly, but the number of people infected with replacement Omicron variants is going up at the same time. Within the next few weeks, the balance will shift, and the overall number of infected people will start going up again. This will be the beginning of the next Covid-19 wave.
We don’t yet know how dangerous the new Omicron variants (BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5) are going to be, but the evidence so far is that they are at least as dangerous as Omicron BA.2. So, we can expect the numbers of people off sick, going into hospital, and sadly dying of Covid-19 to stay high. Unless the Government takes action to slow down the spread of Covid-19, high infection rates and illness will continue forever.
A Message For People Who Don’t Mind Catching Covid-19
Many people have now had Covid twice, three or four times. This might not seem to matter if all you feel is mildly ill each time. But every time you catch Covid is a huge gamble. This infection might be the time that you get more seriously ill straight after catching Covid. Or this might be the time that Covid triggers conditions like brain, lung, kidney or liver damage, a stroke, or a heart attack. New research shows that the first time you catch Covid, you have about a 1 in 10 chance of developing a long-term condition. With each subsequent time you catch it, that risk goes UP.
You may have survived Covid once with little problems. You might survive Covid the next time with little problems. But if you catch Covid regularly through the year, sooner or later the odds WILL catch up with you. Scientists say Covid is the largest mass-disabling event ever in human history, worse than polio or HIV. Please take sensible precautions to avoid catching Covid and opt out of the disability lottery.
Get A Protective Mask!
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is one of the two best ways to protect yourself from Covid (the other is being fully vaccinated and boosted). Disabled and clinically vulnerable people can get high-quality fully-certified reusable PPE face masks at big discounts thanks to partnerships between BuDS and two leading mask manufacturers, Cambridge Masks and Airinum. There is a link at the end of this article to the form to learn more and get the discounts. Any number of masks can be bought, and the offer is open to all disabled and clinically vulnerable people in the UK, not just in Bucks. But act now, as the offers expire soon!
The Risk In Bucks
BuDS uses the most up to date 5-day rolling average ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 21 May. This is of course 9 days ago, but it is the most reliable data available.
Using this data, we calculate that 1 in 57 people in Bucks have Covid, which is 9,470 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph. We have included the number of positive tests reported purely for comparison – these test results are no longer of any value in tracking the virus.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is VERY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?[1] – 17
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?[2] – 1,045
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?[3] – 2,089
- How many infected people in Amersham?[4] – 471
- How many infected people in Chesham?[5] – 465
- How many infected people in Buckingham?[6] – 261
- How many infected people in Burnham?[7] – 198
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?[8] – 26
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?[9] – 174
- How many infected people at a large public event?[10] – 348
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?[11] – 17
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?[12] – 5
How Is The NHS Coping?
The number of patients in Bucks hospitals with Covid-19 is continuing to fall, although the number of patients admitted with Covid-19 is fairly stable. These figures are for 22 May, the latest available:
Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 188.
This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 42.7% lower than the previous week (322). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.
Total number of people admitted with Covid – 78
This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 10.3% lower than last week (87).
Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 75
This figure is 52.2% lower than last week (157).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 31
This figure is 25.2% lower than last week (42).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.
Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the number of deaths in Bucks is sadly remaining high. Notably, this week we only have data for 13 days, rather than the 14 we usually use, so the figures below are likely to be lower than the true values.
There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.
- 28 May, 2 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,314. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
- Between 15 May and 28 May, 11 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,645. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
- Between 29 April and 13 May, 15 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,482. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.
Deaths from Covid in Bucks continue at the rate of one to two every DAY. At least one person has died of Covid in Bucks every single day in the last twenty-two weeks.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the fifth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups.
Effectively, vaccination has ground to a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 29 May:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – 11.2% have had 1 dose; 0.3% have had two doses, and 0.002% have had three doses. 99.99% (51,151) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – 63.9% have had 1 dose; 44.7% have had two doses and 0.6% have had three doses. 99.4% (30,323) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – 76.6% have had 1 dose; 62.5% have had two doses and 18.5% have had three doses. 81.5% (11,646) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – 86.2% have had 1 dose; 83.9% have had two doses and 68.6% have had three doses. 31.4% (118,907) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – 96.9% have had 1 dose; 96.3% have had two doses and 94.0% have had three doses. 6.0% (4,765) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
As the figures above show, virtually all children and young people in Bucks have very low protection against Omicron. Nearly a third of adults also have very low protection against Omicron, and most worryingly, thousands of older adults still have very low protection against Omicron.
Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 5 April 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being ill at home is shrinking.
Offers & More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To find out more about the discounts for certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/
How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
References
[1] Population of approx. 543973 based on 2018 survey data, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time