WARNING: Covid infection levels in England are climbing very fast. Already, around 1 in 108 people in England are infected with Covid (as of 29 September). The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life is still Very High, but rapidly approaching Extremely High. If you don’t want to catch Covid, now is the time to be taking precautions.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 3 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 1 or 2 infected person breathing out virus. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 5 infected people. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
This Autumn Wave of Covid appears to be mainly driven, at the moment, by people’s immunity from infection fading away, allowing them to catch Covid again. There are some new Covid variants, such as XEC and MV.1, starting to spread fast, but at the moment most people seem to be catching existing variants for the second or third time. The new variants will probably drive a wave of infections around December and January, on top of the present Autumn Wave. BuDS is tentatively predicting that the Christmas/New Year wave of Covid in England will be as bad as last year, when 1 in 20 people were infected at the peak.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 29 September. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 108 people in England with Covid as of 29 September is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.