Covid infections in England are continuing to increase, up 6% on last week. The overall Covid risk level remains High and, as of 18 October, 1 in every 149 people in England were infected. Full precautions, including a PPE mask, are strongly recommended in ALL indoor places.
Influenza (flu) levels in England are increasing rapidly as the winter flu wave continues to build, up a fifth (20%) on last week.
Analysis
Covid infection levels in England continue to rise, but the rate of increase has slowed. However, we think this is most likely a ‘bump in the wave’, not the top of the Covid peak.
According to data from the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC), as of 11 October around 60% of Covid infections in England are still caused by the long-standing XFG variant. However, there are early signs that variant BA.2.86 might be starting to replace XFG as the variant causing most infections. This process, if it is happening, may well extend the length of the current wave or cause a second wave. BuDS will keep a close eye on this and keep you informed.
BuDS continues to strongly recommend that anyone offered the free NHS Covid vaccine booster accepts it as soon as possible. We also ask that everyone consider whether they can afford a private Covid booster. The booster primes your immune system to be ready for the Covid variants now in circulation and could prevent severe illness or hospitalisation.
Flu (influenza) is now ramping up sharply as the winter wave gathers pace. Flu is starting much earlier this year than usual, so it’s important to get your flu vaccine as quickly as possible if you are eligible. The flu vaccine will significantly reduce your risk of severe illness or hospitalisation by priming your immune system to be ready for the influenza variants now in circulation. One of the flu variants in circulation has mutated (drifted) unexpectedly and this may evade vaccine protection and/or cause more serious illness than usual, but it is too early to know. But the vaccine protects against several variants and should still be accepted if offered.
Mask Up!
The BuDS Covid risk level is High. Accordingly, we recommend that everyone take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places. Full details can be found in the table below.
BuDS Has Your Back
Our aim is to help Covid-Cautious people continue to engage safely in society while Covid levels are high. Obviously, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory PPE masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid. A CO2 monitor will help you understand how fresh or recirculated indoor air is – the lower the CO2, the better.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| Highest | Hospitals & other healthcare buildings. Education settings such as schools and colleges. Public transport including buses and trains and the London Underground. Very large indoor stadiums or theatres. | Used by people who are much more likely to have Covid. Used by very large numbers of people. | In healthcare and education settings, the risk of encountering a Covid-infected person is high, even if there are not large numbers of users. In very large indoor spaces, you are statistically likely to encounter 20 to 33 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| High | Large cinemas & theatres. Large indoor performing arts venues. Large indoor shopping centres | Used by large numbers of people. | You are statistically likely to encounter 7 to 20 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-High | Larger bars and clubs, Larger supermarkets. Local indoor shopping centres. Large office buildings. | Used by large numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 5 to 10 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants Average sized supermarkets. Smaller offices. Individual larger shops Large indoor heritage or tourism destinations. | Used by medium numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 2 to 4 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-Low | Smaller cinemas, theatres, & performing arts venues. Smaller hotels. Larger individual restaurants. Smaller supermarkets. town Most heritage destinations, eg museums, galleries etc | Used by lower numbers of people. | You are statistically likely to encounter 1 infected person every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Lower | Small pubs, bars & cafes. Small individual shops. Infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services). Buildings which, at the time of visit, have few people inside them. | Used by small numbers of people. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits (although this risk cannot be excluded). After 3 to 6 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). CAUTION: Covid-cautious people using these spaces will wish to use a PPE respiratory mask. Some people may feel it is still safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these small spaces However, remember that Covid may hang in the air in unventilated indoor places and cause an infection even if there is only a few, or even nobody, present. |
| Lowest | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | SAFEST: No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
More Information
This is BuDS’ 294th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/. (The paid and free subscriptions are exactly the same, but choosing a paid one gives us a small, regular donation to support our work.)
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.