Current Covid infection levels remain HIGH, with at least 1 in 165 people in England infected with Covid as of 18 August. Although all the talk now is about the ‘Late Summer Wave’ of Covid being ‘over’, there is still a lot of Covid circulating and the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life still remains HIGH.
It is always difficult to predict the future, but it appears that England will experience a short period of a few weeks where Covid levels are as low as they ever get. However, we can’t stress enough that these background levels are still objectively HIGH. As you will see in our examples below, you will still encounter infected people routinely in your everyday life. Tentatively, we expect competitive new variants of Covid, together with people’s waning post-infective immunity and the return of schools and colleges in September, to drive an ‘Autumn Wave’ in September and October. The next few weeks of relatively lower Covid infection levels is probably the best England can expect.
This endless cycle of Covid waves will never end – we will have a high winter wave as we have had every year since 2020, and 2025 will see 3 or 4 big waves of Covid infections just like 2024 and 2023. Covid is never going away until we control transmission by providing clean air.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there could be 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 1 infected people breathing out virus. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
Although ‘bird flu’ (H5N1 virus) and mpox (‘monkeypox’) are not yet significant risks in England, they may become so in the future. Precautions against Covid, such as filtered and purified air, respiratory masks, and excellent hand hygiene, will also offer protection against these viruses.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 18 August. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 165 people in England with Covid as of 18 August is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.