More Covid good news, as infection levels fall to their lowest level since 2021. For the first time, we have reduced the risk level to Moderate, with 1 in every 638 people in England infected. In other good news, other respiratory viruses are mostly now back at baseline levels. Overall, the risk from respiratory viruses, including Covid, in the community is at its lowest ever level.
Because of the lag in publishing other Covid data, we are basing our risk assessment this week entirely on NOIDS data. However, this data historically has been reliable, and we are confident as clinically vulnerable people ourselves that our assessment is accurate.
What Does This Mean For Me?
Most people should now be able to consider relaxing precautions in all but high risk indoor places. We appreciate this may seem extraordinary after 5 years of taking precautions, but the science is clear that infection levels are currently very low. Deciding on the precautions you wish to take is a very personal one, and people who are acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid and other respiratory viruses may well feel that they wish to maintain precautions in medium-high risk places. We give very detailed guidance on this in the table below.
Meningitis Alert
There has been an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease in the Canterbury area of Kent. Meningococcal disease, also known as meningitis, is when a bacteria (Neisseria Meningitidis in this case) causes inflammation of the membranes (“meninges”) around your brain and spinal cord. It is a life-threatening condition if not treated very quickly. Most people have the meningococcal bacteria in their throats and noses without developing meningitis, or showing any symptoms. However, they exhale the bacteria in droplets on their breath, and other people breathe in the bacteria. These other people may then develop meningitis.
The NHS in Kent is treating everyone who might be infected with the meningococcal bacteria with antibiotics. These antibiotics kill the bacteria, and stop it being spread to other people. The antibiotics are not a treatment for disease, but a preventative measure. Because of the NHS’ quick reaction, nobody who was not present in Canterbury at the time of the outbreak has developed this form of invasive meningococcal disease.
If you live in or visit Canterbury, you should follow NHS advice. If you have no connection with Canterbury or people who live/work there, you do not need to take extra precautions at this time. The outbreak has not spread beyond its original site, and there is no wider risk to the public. Anyone experiencing any of the symptoms of meningitis should call 999 immediately.
If you wish to take precautions against catching meningococcal bacteria, a respiratory mask (FFP2/FFP3 rated) will provide very strong protection indoors. There is no need to take precautions out of doors unless you happen to be in a crowd of people from Canterbury.
Risk Analysis
Given the very low level of Covid and other respiratory viruses, and in accordance with the precautionary principle, we now recommend that precautions against respiratory viruses should be taken by everyone in high risk indoor places only.
The risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) in higher risk indoor areas include wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors, improving fresh air ventilation, using a HEPA filter, and avoiding higher-risk areas.
In lower, medium, and medium-high risk indoor places, people who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid and/or flu should consider whether precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
Detailed Covid Risk Analysis
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 2, potentially 8+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 2+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Medium | Medium-sized bars, clubs, and restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Potentially 1 | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions, especially if risk can be mitigated through ventilation or HEPA filtration. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 13 to 26 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 263rd Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.