Covid-19 Risk Assessment Week Ending 31st January 2022

The number of infected people in Bucks is back on the INCREASE, with 1 in every 24 people in Bucks now infected. Hospitalisations and deaths from Covid-19 also continued to climb in Bucks last week. All the data shows that the Omicron pandemic in Bucks is starting to get WORSE again, and so it is still essential that everyone takes strict precautions against catching Omicron. Read on for more…

GOVERNMENT’S RISKY PLAN LOOKS TO HAVE BACKFIRED

Nearly every other Western nation is trying to manage Covid by keeping the number of infections as low as possible. They are doing this by keeping in place precautions like air filtration, ventilation, face masks, working from home and social distancing, alongside building up high levels of vaccination. This strategy has the advantage of keeping your population as healthy as possible and reducing the impact of new variants but does need strong political leadership because some of the precautions are unpopular with a noisy minority. Because the present English Government is very weak, it has had to bow to extremists in its own ranks who oppose Covid precautions and abandon this strategy.

The other way of dealing with Covid-19 is how the English Government has done it. Alongside a fairly slow vaccination programme, the Government have actively encouraged people to catch Omicron. They have done this by removing precautions and forcing people back into contact with each other. By doing this, the Government accepted that a lot of people would get very ill, and many would die. The advantage that the Government thought they would gain from this plan is not health-related, but political. They hoped that nearly everyone would catch the virus in a short period of time, causing a huge but short-lived peak of infections and deaths. After the peak, there would be a period when infection rates were low because most people would have temporary ‘natural immunity’ from catching Omicron again. This temporary period of lower infection levels could be presented as a ‘victory over Covid’, with ‘life back to normal’ and ‘Omicron is over’. This ‘victory’ would shore up the weak Government and make the PM popular.

This idea looks to have backfired. What has happened is that people are catching Omicron AGAIN fairly quickly after catching it for the first time. 10% of new cases of infection are now people catching the virus again (reinfections). This is happening for two reasons.

The period of temporary immunity which the Government gambled people would have after catching Omicron is actually much shorter than they hoped. Scientists warned this would probably be the case.
An even more contagious new variant of Omicron, Omicron BA.2, is already spreading fast. Catching Omicron BA.1, the original variant, seems to give little protection against catching BA.2. Again, the Government have known about BA.2 since December and scientists warned that it would spread quickly if precautions were lifted.

So, as we see in the data this week, the Government’s gamble looks to have failed. The number of infected people has not fallen very far after the initial peak and is now starting to go up again. Instead of Omicron being ‘over in one big hit’ followed by a steep decline, it looks as if we may instead face a long period of high infection levels, with lots of people missing school and work through sickness, many people severely ill in hospitals and sadly many people dying of Covid.

The Government now have two options. One is to accept very high infection levels for months ahead, with all the cost in lost hours, health, and lives, that this will involve. The other is to re-introduce precautions which will slow down the spread of Omicron and reduce infection levels. However, with a PM fighting for his political life and dependent on extremist support, this looks very unlikely without a change in Government.

So, sadly, it looks as if England will continue ‘fuelling the Covid engine’ with the health and lives of ordinary people. This makes it essential that YOU look after your own interests, because the Government plainly will not do so. See below for our advice on what you should do.

WON’T VACCINATION SAVE US?

The Government has said that vaccination will beat Covid without any other precautions. This might be true IF the vast majority of people were vaccinated AND if the vaccine gave complete and long-lasting protection against Covid. But sadly none of these things are in fact happening.

The Government have said that the UK has the ‘fastest booster programme in Europe’¹. This is not true and has not been true since July 2021. The UK is in fact now behind both Denmark and Italy in the percentage of its population with three doses of vaccine². Only 64.5% of people (adults and children) in England have had three doses of vaccine – well under the 85- 90% which might start to prevent the spread of the virus.

Added to this is the fact that the effect of the booster dose starts to wear off quite quickly – after 10 weeks, even boosted people have an ever-increasing chance of catching and spreading the virus and after 20 weeks, the effect of the booster on preventing infection is almost gone. As the year progresses, time will remove many of the benefits of the booster campaign unless a further round of vaccination is carried out. And, of course, high infection rates means that a new variant which can avoid the vaccines will definitely happen sooner or later.

So vaccination is not going to bring the Covid-19 pandemic to an end on its own. Vaccination is critical because it reduces the number of people who are severely ill or die from Covid, but nowhere near enough people are boosted to stop the virus spreading. The fact that vaccines wear off and new variants will pop up means that the race between the virus and vaccines is always re-starting.

THE RISK IN BUCKS THIS WEEK

BuDS uses 3 separate sets of Government data to give you the best idea of the risk of catching Covid-19 from an infected person in Bucks.

Using official UKHSA reported test data, on Monday 24 January we calculated that there were 20,311 infected people in Bucks. By 31 January, we calculated that there were 22,793, a 12% increase. For the first time, this data includes people who have caught Covid-19 more than once (re-infections).
Using official UKHSA average R-Rate data, on Monday 24 January we calculated that there were 19,847 infected people in Bucks. By 31 January, we calculated that there were 17,623, a 11% decrease.
Using official UKHSA max R-Rate data, on Monday 24 January we calculated that there were 23,322 infected people in Bucks. By 31 January, we calculated that there were 21,026, a 10% decrease.

Looking at all this data together, we calculate that the number of infected people in Bucks has risen from 19,800 – 23,300 to between 17,600 and 22,800.

The more reliable ONS Infection Survey data shows a smaller fall in cases than the UKHSA data, and early trends also suggest that cases are starting to return to high levels. We will know more when the ONS data is published later this week.

You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.

HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO MEET AN INFECTED PERSON?

Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks remains CRITICALLY HIGH.

If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.

How many infected people in every 1000?^[3] – 42
How many infected people in Aylesbury?^[4] – 2,514
How many infected people in High Wycombe?^[5] – 5,028
How many infected people in Amersham?^[6] – 1,135
How many infected people in Chesham?^[7] – 1,120
How many infected people in Buckingham?^[8] – 629
How many infected people in Burnham?^[9] – 476
How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?^[10] – 63
How many infected people in a busy town centre?^[11] – 419
How many infected people at a large public event?^[12] – 838
How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?^[13] – 42
How many infected people in a busy supermarket?^[14] – 13

HOW IS THE NHS COPING?

NHS data is always about a week behind. On 16 January there were 425 people infected with Covid-19 in Bucks hospitals. On 23 January, there were 511, 20.2% more. So, the demand on the NHS in Bucks from Covid-19-infected patients on 23 January (not now) is a FIFTH higher than it was in the week before.

Caring for infected patients is not the only pressure on the NHS in Bucks. Many NHS staff catch Covid or have to self-isolate because they have been in contact with an infected person. BuDS is aiming to include this data in future reports.

Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.

It is too early to know whether the numbers of people in hospital with Omicron are going to continue to increase, stay very high, or reduce – but on current trends, an increase (at least for the next few weeks) seems likely. If the number of people in hospital stays very high or increases, this will put huge strain on the NHS in Bucks and all patient care will suffer.

COVID-19 DEATHS IN BUCKS

We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the numbers of deaths in Bucks is now sadly remaining high as Omicron claims more victims.

There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.

30 January, 24 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,128. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
Between 16 January and 30 January, 29 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,355. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
Up to 14 January, 1,330 died of Covid-19 as recorded by doctors on their death certificates. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.

HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE VACCINATED IN BUCKS?

Here are the latest vaccination figures for 16 January:

Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – 65.2% have had 1 dose; 27.0% have had two doses and 0.1% have had three doses. 99.9% (29,805) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – 76.8% have had 1 dose; 58.5% have had two doses and 7.0% have had three doses. 93.0% (13,250) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
Adults (aged 18 to 70) – 86.1% have had 1 dose; 83.3% have had two doses and 66.1% have had three doses. 33.9% (127,718) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
Older Adults (aged over 70) – 96.9% have had 1 dose; 96.3% have had two doses and 92.6% have had three doses. 7.2% (5,544) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron

Because 2 doses of vaccine only give low protection against Omicron, what matters now is how many people in Bucks have had 3 doses – double vaccinated plus booster. As the figures above show, nearly all children and young people in Bucks have very low protection against Omicron. A third of adults also have very low protection against Omicron, and most worryingly, thousands of older adults still have very low protection against Omicron.

Last week, the percentage of adults triple-jabbed rose from 65.3% to 66.1% in a week and the number of older children and teenagers getting one of their three vaccinations also increased. The overall rate of progress is still far too slow, however.

Those who received their booster jab before 5 December 2021 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still quite high, their resistance to catching Omicron and being ill at home is shrinking. Despite this, so far, the Government have said they do not intend to give anyone a 4^th booster.

OMICRON FACTS

While Omicron seems to send fewer people into hospital with the most severe illness, it still makes people very ill at home. People catching Omicron are often unable to work or do everyday things for weeks. People should not assume Omicron will cause only mild illness like a cold – this is simply not true for many people.
Omicron spreads frighteningly easily between people, especially indoors. Only a tiny amount of virus floating in the air is enough to make you infected. This means that the precautions which might have kept you safe in the past from Delta will NOT keep you safe from catching Omicron. People need to use much tougher precautions to avoid catching Omicron.
Omicron isn’t stopped by two doses of vaccine, like Delta was. Being ‘double jabbed’ meant that you had a lower chance of catching Delta and a much lower chance of being seriously ill if you caught Delta. But two doses of vaccine does very little to stop you catching Omicron and your chance of being seriously ill if you catch Omicron is much higher.
Even if you have three doses of vaccine (i.e. you’ve been boosted), there is still a risk that you will get ill if you catch Omicron and that could be a serious illness. 3 or 4 ‘triple-jabbed’ people in every 10 will get ill after catching Omicron.
It is now proven by multiple reliable studies that children and young people are at much higher risk of being ill and needing hospital treatment if they catch Omicron versus Delta. The number of children and teenagers going into hospital with Covid, and sadly dying of Covid, has sharply increased since Omicron has started to spread.

Remember, so many people in the community now have Omicron, and it is so easy to catch, that it is nearly CERTAIN that you will catch Omicron sooner or later if you or members of your household are active in the community, including children attending school.

WHAT TO DO NOW

This is BuDS’ advice:

If you are not double vaccinated, get vaccinated as soon as possible. Double vaccination may not provide complete protection against illness, but it is a great deal better than nothing. Vaccines are safe and proven, so don’t delay.
If you are double vaccinated, get a third booster dose as soon as possible. Boosting doesn’t give complete protection against illness, but does provide high protection against severe illness which would put you in hospital.
Make sure children and teenagers have two or three doses of vaccine as well. Omicron is causing more severe illness in children and young people than Delta, so vaccination of these age groups is even more vital. Remember, the vaccine is as safe as any other medicine given to children.
Clinically-vulnerable people should go back to shielding, or as near shielding as they can manage. This means not seeing people outside your household or bubble unless you take strict precautions to keep safe, such as asking visitors to get tested, wearing a protective face mask, and meeting in places where you can be sure of breathing only fresh air.
If there are children in a clinically-vulnerable household, we recommend you give very serious thought to home-schooling the children until the Omicron wave has reduced. With no real precautions against Covid in schools, particularly primary schools, children will inevitably bring Covid home to their parents and relatives.
Everyone should be limiting their contact with other people as much as possible, and taking strict precautions when they have to meet other people. This means working from home or changing your working arrangements temporarily if you can, not going to big social gatherings like parties, theatres and pubs, meeting people in the safest possible circumstances, and taking thorough precautions against getting infected like wearing a face covering and washing hands.
We strongly advise everyone to get and wear a N95 or FFPE2 personal protective face mask which filters viruses out of the air you breathe. Get one from a reliable branded supplier, not an anonymous Amazon shop. Remember to make sure it is tightly-fitted so that air does not leak around the edges.
Anyone who is not shielding should test regularly to see if they have caught Omicron. Lateral flow tests are not reliable so, if you feel ill or have any symptoms of illness, self-isolate immediately and get a PCR test to confirm whether you have Omicron or not.

You can have Omicron for several days before showing any symptoms, so test yourself before you meet anyone else or go anywhere. In particular, do not go anywhere near older and clinically-vulnerable people until you have tested negative on a PCR test. Do not risk your vulnerable loved one’s lives on an unreliable lateral flow home test kit.

MORE INFORMATION

If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.

How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/

All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/

Sources of Help – https://buds.org.uk/category/help-in-a-crisis/

WE ARE HERE TO HELP

BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.