Although Covid infection levels are declining in England, the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains HIGH. Everyone still needs to continue to take precautions to avoid catching Covid, because Covid has not gone away. Around 1 in 143 people in England are infected with Covid, as of 6 March. See below for more on how we calculated this.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will probably be 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you have a high risk of catching Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
Our data comes from the ONS/UKHSA Winter Infection Survey. However, this has been closed by Government with immediate effect from today (14 March), and no more data will be published. Other Covid-related data, e.g. about hospitalisations, is also being stopped or restricted. We are investigating whether we will be able to continue our regular Covid risk assessment reports, given that Government is ruthlessly suppressing the data we need to produce them.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
We have used data taken from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) Winter Infection Survey as the starting point for the estimates above. The last Winter Infection Survey (WIS) covers up to 6 March, and contains a range of estimates. In particular, the ONS weighted positivity showed a rising trend in Covid cases, while the UKHSA weighted prevalence showed a plateaued trend. We have taken into account both of these data sources, and also used data from the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) report dated 4 March. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 143 people in England with Covid as of 6 March is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.