Since the ONS Infection Survey was cancelled in early March 2023, there has been no fully reliable way to work out how many people in Bucks have Covid. However, BuDS has been able to use the Zoe Covid Study data to calculate a likely number of infections since the ONS Survey ended. This article explains the March and April 2023 Covid wave in Bucks, based on BuDS’ calculations.
Methodology
As explained in this article, the Zoe Covid Study consistently underestimates the number of infections during peaks of Covid infection. This is probably due to incomplete demographic coverage (i.e. Zoe Study users are not representative of certain groups within the population, and therefore cannot accurately capture infections within these groups). BuDS therefore increases the Zoe Study totals for Buckinghamshire to compensate for this incomplete coverage. You can find out more about this here. Our methodology has been reviewed and confirmed by a Principal Statistician at the ONS.
The March & April Wave
As shown in the graph below, BuDS calculates that the number of Covid infections in Bucks rose sharply in March to a peak of around 25,000 people. This was around the same as the previous peak in December 2022 and January 2023, which reached a peak of around 28,000 people (ONS Infection Survey data).
The December 2022/January 2023 wave was driven mainly by Omicron variants BQ.1 and CH.1.1 (source). The March/April 2023 wave was driven mainly by the XBB and XBB.1.5 variants. These XBB variants were informally named ‘Kraken’, and so the March/April wave could be known as ‘the Kraken wave’.
Disclaimer
The calculated wave shown in the graph above is illustrative only. While we believe it to be a well-informed estimate, the absence of definitive data from the ONS Infection Survey means that it cannot be independently verified.