Covid-19 Risk Assessment Week Ending 7th February 2022

The number of infected people in Bucks is back on the INCREASE according to the most reliable data, although the number of public-reported positive tests continues to fall. The number of people in hospital with Covid and dying of Covid in Bucks remains HIGH, although thankfully both totals fell last week. With 1 in every 22 people still infected with Covid-19, it is still essential that everyone takes strict precautions against catching the virus. Read on for more…

THE GOVERNMENT ISN’T TELLING THE WHOLE TRUTH…

There are two ways of working out how many people are infected with Covid-19. One is to use the number of people who test positive for Covid-19 and then report that test result to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). These statistics are published every day by the Government and in all the media. The other way, done by the Office for National Statistics every week, is to randomly sample a very large number of people all over the country and see how many people test positive. The second way is much more reliable, because it doesn’t rely on people choosing to get tested or report their positive result, but the results are much less publicised.

The graph shows the number of infected people in Bucks worked out using these two different sets of data – the UKHSA test results (blue line) and the ONS Infection Survey (red line). As you can see, the two sets of data generally agree but, since the end of January, the ONS data is showing an increase while the UKHSA is showing a fall. The rise shown by the ONS is also supported by the higher ‘R-rate’ data for SE England worked out by the UKHSA.

So, BuDS is taking the view that the most reliable data says that the number of infected people in Bucks is rising. This means that your risk of catching Covid-19 when you are out and about is also increasing.

The Government has suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic is over because the number of reported positive tests is falling. However, as explained above, the most reliable data shows that the pandemic is NOT over. The Government is ignoring this more reliable data because it does not fit into its political message that they have ‘won the war against Covid’. However, the reality is that 1 in every 22 people in Bucks is infected with Covid-19 and so, if you don’t take strict precautions, it is very likely that you will catch Covid-19 from someone while out and about.

YOU CAN CATCH COVID MORE THAN ONCE!

Remember, you can catch Covid-19 more than once, so having had Covid-19 last year is no protection against catching it again this year. In fact, more than 10% of the people catching Omicron now caught Delta last year. Your best protection against serious illness is having a booster vaccine dose, although that protection will wear off quite quickly. BuDS is publishing a separate article on this soon.

THE RISK IN BUCKS THIS WEEK

BuDS uses 3 separate sets of official data to give you the best idea of the risk of catching Covid-19 from an infected person in Bucks.

Using official UKHSA reported test data, on Monday 31 January we calculated that there were 21,412 infected people in Bucks. By 6 February, we calculated that there were 18,715, a 13% decrease. This data now includes people who have caught Covid-19 more than once (re-infections).
Using official UKHSA average R-Rate data, on Monday 31 January we calculated that there were 17,640 infected people in Bucks. By 6 February, we calculated that there were 21,991, a 25% increase.
Using official UKHSA max R-Rate data, on Monday 31 January we calculated that there were 21,047 infected people in Bucks. By 6 February, we calculated that there were 25,203, a 20% increase.

Looking at all this data together, we calculate that the number of infected people in Bucks has risen from 17,600 – 21,400 to between 18,700 and 25,200.

The more reliable ONS Infection Survey data showed a smaller recent fall in cases than the UKHSA data, and ONS daily data shows numbers now rising rapidly again. You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.

HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO MEET AN INFECTED PERSON?

Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks remains CRITICALLY HIGH.

If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.

How many infected people in every 1000?¹ – 46
How many infected people in Aylesbury?² – 2,780
How many infected people in High Wycombe?³ – 5,560
How many infected people in Amersham?⁴ – 1,255
How many infected people in Chesham?⁵ – 1,238
How many infected people in Buckingham?⁶ – 695
How many infected people in Burnham?⁷ – 526
How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?⁸ – 70
How many infected people in a busy town centre?⁹ – 463
How many infected people at a large public event?¹⁰ – 927
How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?¹¹ – 46
How many infected people in a busy supermarket?¹² – 13

HOW IS THE NHS COPING?

NHS data is always about a week behind. On 23 January there were 511 people infected with Covid-19 in Bucks hospitals. On 30 January, there were 425, 16.8% less. So, the demand on the NHS in Bucks from Covid-19-infected patients on 30 January (not now) is now lower than it was in the week before. This is the first drop in the number of people in Bucks hospitals for several weeks. However, we don’t yet know if this is just a weekly ‘blip’ or the start of a welcome trend. More next week.

Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.

COVID-19 DEATHS IN BUCKS

We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the numbers of deaths in Bucks is sadly remaining high as Omicron claims more victims.

There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.

6 February, 19 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,142. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
Between 23 January and 6 February, 23 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,367. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
Up to 21 January, 1,346 died of Covid-19 as recorded by doctors on their death certificates. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.

To give you a better idea of what these figures mean in reality, in the second half of January, using the 60-day totals above, between 30 and 40 people have died in Bucks EVERY WEEK of Covid.

HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE VACCINATED IN BUCKS?

Here are the latest vaccination figures for 16 January:

Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – 65.9% have had 1 dose; 30.4% have had two doses and 0.1% have had three doses. 99.9% (29,791) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – 77.1% have had 1 dose; 59.3% have had two doses and 7.7% have had three doses. 92.3% (13,167) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
Adults (aged 18 to 70) 86.1% have had 1 dose; 83.4% have had two doses and 66.6% have had three doses. 33.4% (125,979) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron
Older Adults (aged over 70) – 96.9% have had 1 dose; 96.3% have had two doses and 92.9% have had three doses. 7.1% (5,487) are not fully vaccinated and vulnerable to Omicron

Because 2 doses of vaccine only give low protection against Omicron, what matters now is how many people in Bucks have had 3 doses – double vaccinated plus booster. As the figures above show, nearly all children and young people in Bucks have very low protection against Omicron. A third of adults also have very low protection against Omicron, and most worryingly, thousands of older adults still have very low protection against Omicron.

Last week, vaccination in Bucks came to a standstill across nearly all age groups. Only the percentage of secondary-school children (12-15) getting their second dose showed any sign of increase, going from 27% to 30%. But the percentage of unvaccinated children, teenagers and adults getting their first dose hardly changed. The recent pleasing progress in adults getting their booster dose also died away. This vaccination failure not only means tens of thousands of people in Bucks have low protection against Omicron, but also means that the virus can continue to circulate freely.

Remember, those who received their booster jab before 12 December 2021 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still quite high, their resistance to catching Omicron and being ill at home is shrinking.

OMICRON FACTS

While Omicron sends fewer people into hospital with the most severe illness, it still makes people very ill at home. People catching Omicron are often unable to work or do everyday things for weeks. People should not assume Omicron will cause only mild illness like a cold – this is simply not true for many people.
Omicron spreads frighteningly easily between people, especially indoors. Only a tiny amount of virus floating in the air is enough to make you infected. This means that the precautions which might have kept you safe in the past from Delta will NOT keep you safe from catching Omicron. People need to use much tougher precautions to avoid catching Omicron.
Omicron isn’t stopped by two doses of vaccine, like Delta was. Being ‘double jabbed’ meant that you had a lower chance of catching Delta and a much lower chance of being seriously ill if you caught Delta. But two doses of vaccine does very little to stop you catching Omicron and your chance of being seriously ill if you catch Omicron is much higher.
Even if you have three doses of vaccine (i.e. you’ve been boosted), there is still a risk that you will get ill if you catch Omicron and that could be a serious illness. 3 or 4 ‘triple-jabbed’ people in every 10 will get ill after catching Omicron.
It is now proven by multiple reliable studies that children and young people are at much higher risk of being ill and needing hospital treatment if they catch Omicron versus Delta. The number of children and teenagers going into hospital with Covid, and sadly dying of Covid, has sharply increased since Omicron has started to spread.

Remember, so many people in the community now have Omicron, and it is so easy to catch, that it is HIGHLY LIKELY that you will catch Omicron sooner or later if you or members of your household are active in the community, including children attending school.

WHAT TO DO NOW

This is BuDS’ advice:

If you are not double vaccinated, get vaccinated as soon as possible. Double vaccination may not provide complete protection against illness, but it is a great deal better than nothing. Vaccines are safe and proven, so don’t delay.
If you are double vaccinated, get a third booster dose as soon as possible. Boosting doesn’t give complete protection against illness, but does provide high protection against severe illness which would put you in hospital.
Make sure children and teenagers have two or three doses of vaccine as well. Omicron is causing more severe illness in children and young people than Delta, so vaccination of these age groups is even more vital. Remember, the vaccine is as safe as any other medicine given to children.
Clinically-vulnerable people should go back to shielding, or as near shielding as they can manage. This means not seeing people outside your household or bubble unless you take strict precautions to keep safe, such as asking visitors to get tested, wearing a protective face mask, and meeting in places where you can be sure of breathing only fresh air.
If there are children in a clinically-vulnerable household, we recommend you give very serious thought to home-schooling the children until the Omicron wave has reduced. With no real precautions against Covid in schools, particularly primary schools, children will inevitably bring Covid home to their parents and relatives.
Everyone should be limiting their contact with other people as much as possible, and taking strict precautions when they have to meet other people. This means working from home or changing your working arrangements temporarily if you can, not going to big social gatherings like parties, theatres and pubs, meeting people in the safest possible circumstances, and taking thorough precautions against getting infected like wearing a face covering and washing hands.
We strongly advise everyone to get and wear a N95 or FFPE2 personal protective face mask which filters viruses out of the air you breathe. Get one from a reliable branded supplier, not an anonymous Amazon shop. Remember to make sure it is tightly-fitted so that air does not leak around the edges.
Anyone who is not shielding should test regularly to see if they have caught Omicron. Lateral flow tests are not reliable so, if you feel ill or have any symptoms of illness, self-isolate immediately and get a PCR test to confirm whether you have Omicron or not.

You can have Omicron for several days before showing any symptoms, so test yourself before you meet anyone else or go anywhere. In particular, do not go anywhere near older and clinically-vulnerable people until you have tested negative on a PCR test. Do not risk your vulnerable loved one’s lives on an unreliable lateral flow home test kit.

MORE INFORMATION

If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.

How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/

All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/

Sources of Help – https://buds.org.uk/category/help-in-a-crisis/

WE ARE HERE TO HELP

BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.

REFERENCES

[1] Population of approx. 543973 based on 2018 survey data, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.

[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx

[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls

[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls

[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/

[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1

[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total

[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time

[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time

[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time

[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time

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