Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 14 October 2022

The Covid wave in Bucks continues, although not as quickly last week as before. As of 12 October, we estimate 1 in 35 people in the county were infected with Covid-19. The Covid risk level in Bucks remains EXTREMELY HIGH. In your average busy supermarket, there will now be nine people breathing out Covid for you to catch.

Our advice remains to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries), breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.

Get Boosted & Get A Protective Mask!
The Risk in Bucks
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
How Is The NHS Coping?
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
More Information
We Are Here To Help!
Population Data References

Get Boosted & Get A Protective Mask!

If you are eligible for the NHS autumn booster, make sure you take it. If you or your children haven’t yet had all your other Covid vaccinations, get them done now. Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death or serious illness.

Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. Wearing an FFP2 or N95 filter mask means that the air in your lungs is clean, even if there is lots of Covid in the air around you. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.

The Risk in Bucks

BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 3 October. This is of course 11 days ago, but it is the most reliable data available. We have carefully calculated the most likely infection data as of 12 October by mathematically extrapolating the trend in the ONS data. Although this is an estimate, it is supported by other data including the UKHSA Pillar 1 testing data, and the Zoe app study – though the Zoe study suggests the levels could be even higher than our ONS-based prediction. If you want to know more, please get in touch.

Using this method, we estimate that 1 in 35 people in Bucks were infected as of 12 October, which is 15,685 people.

You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.

A graph showing positive Covid cases. BuDS/ONS estimated 15,685 cases on 12 October. UKHSA estimated 1,701 cases on 12 October.

How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?

Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is EXTREMELY HIGH.

If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.

How many infected people in every 1000?^[1] – 28
How many infected people in Aylesbury?^[2] – 1,702
How many infected people in High Wycombe?^[3] – 3,403
How many infected people in Amersham?^[4] – 768
How many infected people in Chesham?^[5] – 758
How many infected people in Buckingham?^[6] – 425
How many infected people in Burnham?^[7] – 322
How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?^[8] – 43
How many infected people in a busy town centre?^[9] – 284
How many infected people at a large public event?^[10] – 567
How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?^[11] – 28
How many infected people in a busy supermarket?^[12] – 9

How Is The NHS Coping?

The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals with Covid-19 rose sharply this week, by 41%.

These figures are for 10 October, the latest available:

Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 316.

This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 41% higher than the previous week (224). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.

Total number of people admitted with Covid – 55

This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 27% lower than last week (75).

Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 126

This figure is 41% higher than last week (90).

As of May 5, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 22

This figure is 27% lower than last week (30).

As of May 5, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

This means that the entire rise in hospitalisations this week has been fuelled by people catching Covid-19 in hospital, not in the community. This reinforces the point that hospitals are a very dangerous place to be when it comes to Covid-19. One London hospital gave the highest grade FFP3 filter masks to its staff and saw staff Covid infections fall to zero. This proves how important it is to wear a filter mask when attending hospital or other medical appointments.

You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.

Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.

Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks

We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the number of deaths in Bucks has risen.

There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.

10 October, 8 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,437. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
Between 26 September and 10 October, 14 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,831. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
Between 16 September and 30 September, 6 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,561. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.

How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?

For the twenty fourth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Just over 20,500 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 12 October. While this seems like a decent increase on the number we reported in our last risk assessment, this is once again almost entirely due to the addition of the fifth ‘autumn’ dose to the data. If this is discounted, only just over 600 doses were given across all age groups.

Effectively, vaccination, other than 5^th-dose boosters, remains at a halt in Bucks.

Here are the latest vaccination figures for 12 October:

Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 4,217 children of the over 51,000 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (8.2%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. 13 people have had 3 doses, and 7,397 young children have had one dose (14.4%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (85.6%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 342 children of the nearly 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 15,000 secondary-age children have had two doses (48.9%), and 18,864 secondary-age children have had one dose (61.1%). Over a third (38.9%) of secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,845 of the over 14,000 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (19.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,200 older teenagers have had two doses (64.0%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (75.2%). Nearly a quarter (24.8%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 262,509 of the over 380,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (69.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 26,212 adults have had four doses (6.9%), all of which are part of the autumn booster programme. Under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.8%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (86.0%). Over a tenth (14.0%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Adults (aged over 70) – 45,341 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had five doses of a vaccine (56.4%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 45,000 older adults have had four doses (55.3%), just over 75,800 older adults have had three doses (94.4%), just over 77,000 older adults have had two doses (96.3%), and just under 78,000 have had one dose (96.9%). More than 2,500 (3.1%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19

Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 9 August 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking. The fourth ‘autumn booster’ is essential to upgrade and refresh people’s protection.

More Information

If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.

To find out more certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/

How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/

All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/

To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/

We Are Here To Help!

BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.