Covid infection levels in England continue to fall, although the overall risk rating remains Moderately High. The level recorded for the week ending 26 January is probably the lowest level seen since 2021, with around 1 in every 362 people infected. Influenza infections also continue to fall, although they are not yet back to baseline levels.
A lengthy period of relatively low Covid levels has never happened before in England since 2021. We are as confident as we can be that this is a real situation, not due to data error or a reduced number of tests. In this new situation, BuDS continues to encourage everyone to take the level of Covid precautions that feels right for them, bearing in mind their own personal circumstances. Our role is to give you the information to help you make informed decisions, and we will do so in this post.
Some indoor places remain high risk for catching Covid, regardless of the general infection level, because they are typically poorly ventilated and used by large numbers of people who are not taking any Covid precautions but who have a higher-than-average chance of having Covid. These include buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these high-risk places or if meeting people who use them.
Indoor places with large numbers of users remain medium-high risk for Covid because, even if the general level of Covid is lower, there are still enough people using those places that some of those users will be infected and breathing out virus. These places include bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, and most cinemas and theatres. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these medium-high risk places.
Indoor places with smaller numbers of users, such as medium-sized restaurants, supermarkets, smaller offices and individual larger shops, are currently medium to lower-risk places. This is because, statistically, the chances of meeting an infected person in such places is the lowest it has been for the last 4 years. In an average busy medium-sized supermarket, for example, statistically there will be only 1 infected person in most (4 of 5) visits. It is still possible to catch Covid in such circumstances, for example if the infected person is nearby and exhaling virus, but the risk of that is lower now than it has been for a long time. We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for all clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic.
Indoor places with small numbers of users, such as small cafes and shops, are currently lower risk for catching Covid. This is because, statistically, it is currently unlikely that an infected person will be using that space at the same time as you. In a local café, which has maybe a dozen seats, statistically speaking you would have to visit a full café 28 times before you encountered a Covid-infected person. Again, we continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. Remember, you might be unlucky and sit next to the one Covid-infected person on your first visit.
Covid and flu are airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. Dispersing the virus cloud through fresh air ventilation – opening a window or door – or clearing the virus from the air through HEPA filtration should be the first ways used to make the space safer. PPE respiratory masks should be the last line of defence if other means cannot be used, although clinically-vulnerable people may wish to use multiple layers of defence to suit their own vulnerability.
Remember too that Covid is not just dangerous for clinically-vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
This is BuDS’ 212th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation next week – if you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.