Covid infections in Bucks nearly doubled last week. The Covid risk has been raised to Critically High, with more people with Covid going into hospital.
This is the last risk post in this format, as the Government have deliberately closed the Office for National Statistics’ Coronavirus Infection Survey, which measures how many people have Covid in the UK. However, we will continue publishing risk assessments using other data – more on this next week.
Covid Still Matters
The truth about Covid is all around us. At work, at school, in hospitals, in doctors’ surgeries and in shops, high numbers of people are sick all the time. This is Covid at work. Over 2 million people have left the workforce because of long term illness or disability since the pandemic started. Covid is destroying the health of Buckinghamshire, with at least 10,000 infections every single week.
Please continue to take sensible precautions against catching Covid. These precautions include wearing a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries), breathing clean air, avoiding crowds and busy places, working from home if you can, and protecting your older and ill relatives and friends.
Get Vaccinated & Get A Protective Mask!
Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death or serious illness. The autumn 2022 booster programme has now ended, but a very limited number of people may be able to get a spring 2023 booster. Learn more here.
Adults and teenagers can still get free vaccination if you haven’t had your first three ‘primary’ doses, for now. If this is you, please ask your GP or book a vaccination now. The latest research suggests that having your three primary doses of vaccine reduces your risk of developing Long Covid.
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. Wearing an FFP2 or N95 filter mask means that the air in your lungs is clean, even if there is lots of Covid in the air around you. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.
The Risk In Bucks This Week
BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 13 March. This is of course 11 days ago, but it is the latest reliable data available. We have mathematically extrapolated the trend in the ONS data to give an indication of how many people are infected now, rather than 11 days ago.
We estimate that 1 in 22 people in Bucks were infected as of 22 March, which is 25,366 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is CRITICALLY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?1 – 46
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?2 – 2,752
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?3 – 5,503
- How many infected people in Amersham?4 – 1,242
- How many infected people in Chesham?5 – 1,225
- How many infected people in Buckingham?6 – 688
- How many infected people in Burnham?7 – 521
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?8 – 69
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?9 – 459
- How many infected people at a large public event?10 – 917
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?11 – 46
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?12 – 14
How Is The NHS Coping?
The NHS is struggling to cope, and it is likely that these figures underestimate the true number of infected people in hospital, simply because staff have been too busy to do routine testing. The NHS has announced that from April, it will reduce the number of people who are routinely tested for Covid in hospital. This will make it appear that there are a lot less Covid cases in hospital, but the truth is that there will be less tests, not less Covid.
The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals tested and found to be positive for Covid-19 fell slightly this week, by 4%.
Buckinghamshire Healthcare Trust, which runs Stoke Mandeville and Wycombe hospitals, is consistently one of the worst Trusts in England for patients catching Covid in hospital – it has been in the bottom 10 for preventing Covid infections inside its buildings for most of the last 12 months.
These figures are for 20 March, the latest available:
Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 239.
This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 4% lower than the previous week (249). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.
Total number of people admitted with Covid – 49
This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 22.5% higher than last week (40).
Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 96
This figure is 4% lower than last week (100).
As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 20
This figure is 22.5% higher than last week (16).
As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Hospitals remain a very dangerous place to be when it comes to Covid-19, and it is very important to wear a filter mask when attending hospital or other medical appointments.
You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed the last 12 months on the graphs below.
Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. According to 2 of the 3 measures we use, deaths have fallen slightly this week in Bucks.
There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.
- Between 7 March and 21 March, 11 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,614. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
- Between 7 March and 21 March, 13 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 2,071. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
- Between 25 February and 10 March, 6 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,670. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the forty sixth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Only 28 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 22 March. Because the ‘autumn booster’ programme has now closed, all these doses were people getting their primary (first, second, and third) doses. This number is lower than the 33 doses recorded in the previous week, and shows again the continued decline in vaccination rates in Bucks.
Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 22 March:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 5,012 children of the 51,653 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (9.7%), formerly recommended by the NHS for high protection. 213 children have had 3 doses, and 7,152 young children have had one dose (13.8%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (86.2%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 516 children of the over 31,200 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Under 14,300 secondary-age children have had two doses (45.7%), and 17,620 secondary-age children have had one dose (56.4%). More than 4 in 10 (43.6%) secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,558 of the over 14,600 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (17.5%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,100 older teenagers have had two doses (62.5%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (73.6%). Over a quarter (26.4%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 262,600 of the over 382,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (68.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 93,300 adults have had four doses (24.4%), all of which are part of the now ended autumn booster programme. Under 319,000 adults have had two doses (83.3%), and less than 327,000 adults have had one dose (85.5%). Over a tenth (14.5%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – 69,014 of the over 80,700 older adults in Bucks have had five doses of a vaccine (85.4%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 43,300 older adults have had four doses (53.7%), just under 76,400 older adults have had three doses (94.6%), just over 77,800 older adults have had two doses (96.4%), and just over 78,200 have had one dose (96.9%). Just over 2,500 (3.1%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To see the range available from Cambridge Masks Co: https://cambridgemask.com/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To read about the upcoming Spring booster programme, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/spring-covid-19-booster-vaccination-campaign/
To read about the changes to the ONS Infection Survey, and the other changes coming to Covid-19 data, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/changes-to-covid-19-data
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
Population References
[1] Population of 553,100 from ONS Census 2021 data
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11,360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1,500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1,000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time