The good news about Covid continues this week, as infection levels in England continue to fall to the lowest level seen so far this year. Around 1 in every 429 people in England were infected as of 23 November, and the risk level remains Moderately High.
Influenza (flu) continues to circulate at high levels, but it is possible that the current flu wave has peaked.
Reality Check
BuDS uses NHS Notifications of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data for our weekly Covid risk assessments, because this is the only data published weekly. There is no other NHS or UKHSA data for last week (w/e 23 Nov), so we are unable to cross-check our data. However, the trends in other data are consistent with the fall we are seeing in NOIDS. For this reason, we are confident that Covid levels in England are currently as low as we have seen them in recent history. Remember, however, that influenza levels are still high, and that the flu is also a damaging respiratory virus to catch.
We know that hundreds of thousands of older, disabled, and clinically vulnerable people are forced to live sheltered lives because the Government allows Covid to spread uncontrollably in the community. We hope that the fact that Covid levels will probably be lower over Christmas and New Year – to everyone’s surprise – means that more people will be able to enjoy a cautiously social festive season.
Help Us Keep Helping You
Last week, when we published our 250th Covid Risk Assessment, we also launched a small fundraising campaign to cover the essential costs of our Covid risk assessments in 2026. If you value our work, and would like it to continue in 2026, please consider making a donation if you can – link below.
Risk Analysis
The risk from Covid has not gone away, it is simply lower at present. BuDS continues to recommend that everyone takes proportionate precautions against catching Covid. We recommend that these precautions should be taken in all high, medium-high, and medium risk indoor places. In lower risk indoor places, most people (who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid) should consider whether Covid precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend Covid precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
Remember, flu levels are still high, and there is a risk of catching flu in indoor places. Influenza is not as contagious as Covid, but the risk of catching it is still high in crowded or unventilated indoor spaces. Precautions against catching Covid will also protect you from catching flu.
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 2, potentially 12+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 2, potentially 4+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 2+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 9 to 17 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Most people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax Covid precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. Acutely clinically-vulnerable people may wish to continue precautions. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
Covid is not just dangerous for clinically vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 251st Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.