For the first time in 18 weeks, Covid infection levels in England have risen slightly higher. As of the week ending 23 March, around 1 in every 293 people were infected, up 13% on last week. The overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High, but we are tentatively predicting a Covid wave in April or May.
We calculate Covid prevalence from UKHSA NOIDS (Notification of Infectious Diseases) data. UKHSA is also reporting an increase in positive Covid-19 tests, in the week to 12 March. Unfortunately, the Scottish wastewater monitoring data does not cover the most recent week of NOIDS figures, so we can’t confirm yet whether the rise we see there is also occurring across the UK. We will know more next week.
This small rise in Covid infection levels in England is probably driven by the rise of a competitive new Covid variant called LP.8.1. This new variant is still at low levels in the UK according to genomic sampling, but it is rising rapidly across Europe. It can be expected to do so in the UK as well over the next few weeks. Tentatively, we are now predicting a Covid wave in April or May. The size of this wave cannot be accurately predicted yet.
Influenza infections are still continuing to fall but much more slowly now. It looks as if ‘seasonal’ influenza is going to be a continuing problem in England right into the Spring. UKHSA is also warning of a second wave of a new variant of Norovirus, which causes sickness and diarrhoea and can be dangerous for many people. Norovirus is also a virus spread through the air by aerosol, like flu and Covid, as well as by droplets in the air and on surfaces.
Risk Illustration
BuDS continues to encourage everyone to take the level of Covid precautions that feels right for them, bearing in mind their own personal circumstances and the need to protect others. Our role is to give you the information to help you make informed decisions, and we will do so in this post. Remember, precautions against Covid will also help protect against all respiratory viruses including flu, norovirus and even measles.
Some indoor places remain high risk for catching Covid, regardless of the general infection level, because they are typically poorly ventilated and used by large numbers of people who are not taking any Covid precautions but who have a higher-than-average chance of having Covid. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these high-risk places or if meeting people who use them. High risk places include: buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges.
Indoor places with large numbers of users remain medium-high risk for Covid because, even if the general level of Covid is lower, there are still enough people using those places that some of those users will be infected and breathing out virus. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these medium-high risk places. These include: bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, and most cinemas and theatres.
Indoor places with smaller numbers of users, such as medium-sized restaurants, supermarkets, smaller offices and individual larger shops, are currently medium risk places. In an average busy medium-sized supermarket, for example, statistically there will be 1 infected person every time you visit. We therefore continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for all clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic.
Indoor places with small numbers of users, such as small cafes and shops, are currently lower risk for catching Covid. Again, we continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. Again, we say this is because, statistically, it is currently unlikely that an infected person will be using that space at the same time as you. In a local café, which has maybe a dozen seats, statistically speaking you would have to visit a full café 24 times before you encountered a Covid-infected person. Remember, however, you might be unlucky and sit next to the one Covid-infected person on your first visit.
Covid Is Airborne
Covid, flu, norovirus and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. Dispersing the virus cloud through fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door – or clearing the virus from the air through HEPA filtration should be the first ways used to make the space safer. PPE respiratory masks should be the last line of defence if other means cannot be used, although clinically-vulnerable people may wish to use multiple layers of defence to suit their own vulnerability.
Remember too that Covid is not just dangerous for clinically-vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 220th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.