The Covid good news continues for another week, with risk levels remaining Moderately High and 1 in every 392 people in England infected. Other respiratory viruses, such as influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are still above baseline but declining fast. Overall, the risk from respiratory viruses, including Covid, remains at historically lower levels.
As clinically-vulnerable people ourselves, we are reasonably confident that this is a robust risk assessment.
Covid: So Far, So Good
We explained last week that the UK may be repeating 2025’s Covid infection pattern. 2025 saw lower infection levels after the 2024-25 winter wave, which edged slowly higher over spring and summer 2025, before ramping up in the autumn and winter. So far, Covid infection levels in 2026 are repeating this pattern.
This week has seen Covid infection levels edging a little higher, while remaining at historically lower levels. This fits the 2025 pattern: as people’s temporary immunity to Covid from the winter wave of vaccinations and infections wanes, infection levels rise gradually. Eventually, a balance is struck between people’s immunity and the varying ‘soup’ of variants in circulation. In 2025, this balance saw gently rising levels over most of the year. In 2026, this balance may result in a higher rate of increase, or the same, or a static position. Only time will tell. Obviously, the arrival of a new variant which can cut through previous immunity would cause a rapid wave of infections, but there is no such variant currently on the radar.
Obviously, we will continue to monitor the situation, and issue regular risk assessments, so we will know whether this prediction is working out or not.
What Does This Mean For Me?
We feel that no-one should stop taking strict precautions against catching Covid in high and medium-high indoor places (see table below for details). However, while Covid infection levels in England remain historically lower, we do feel that most people will be able to consider relaxing precautions in lower and medium risk indoor places. We give very detailed guidance on this in the table below.
Other Respiratory Viruses
Reported influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) levels are still above normal ‘baseline’ levels. They are falling, but will not be back to baseline some weeks yet. For this reason, we continue to recommend precautions against catching flu and RSV in higher-risk indoor places. Generally, because flu and RSV are not as contagious as Covid, the risk levels align, so that the same level of precautions is appropriate.
Risk Analysis
In accordance with the precautionary principle, we continue to recommend that precautions against respiratory viruses should be taken in all high and medium-high indoor places. In lower and medium risk indoor places, most people (who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid and/or flu) should consider whether precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
The risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) in higher risk indoor areas include wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors, improving fresh air ventilation, using a HEPA filter, and avoiding higher-risk areas.
Detailed Covid Risk Analysis
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 3, potentially 13+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 2, potentially 4+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized bars, clubs, and restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 2+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions, especially if risk can be mitigated through ventilation or HEPA filtration. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 8 to 16 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 260th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.