Covid infection levels in England continue to rise, according to the latest data, and we have once again upgraded our advice about the precautions that are appropriate in different places in response to the greater infection risk.
That said, infection levels remain historically lower, with 1 in every 1120 people in England now infected as of 16 August. The BuDS overall risk level remains Moderately Low but is likely to rise to Moderate soon. Other respiratory viruses, including flu, remain at low levels but are also showing signs of a rise. It remains sensible and proportionate to take more precautions in some places now, but there is no need for alarm.
This update replaces the one issued on 19 August. That update included data only to 9 August, but this one uses the latest data to 16 August. Hopefully the NHS will resume its normal cycle of weekly data reporting as the holiday season ends.
Covid Precautions Now Recommended in More Places
Covid levels in England are sliding higher as population immunity to new infections wanes and people start mixing more indoors. This is the pattern we saw in the late summer of 2025 too.
We are now recommending full precautions, including a PPE mask, for everyone in Highest, High Risk, and Medium-High Risk places. You can see a description of these places in the table below. We are also recommending that Covid-cautious people resume full precautions including masking in Medium Risk places, such as pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants with 100-200 capacity, medium-sized supermarkets, smaller offices, and individual larger shops.
In all other places, you are still statistically unlikely to encounter a person with Covid on a single visit, and we therefore feel that most people may consider that a lower level of precautions is appropriate.
Obviously, if you work or regularly visit a highest, high-risk or medium-risk indoor place, your risk of encountering a person with Covid is much higher, and you should take precautions accordingly. Remember also that high traffic places, like public transport and hospitals, are more likely to have residual virus in the air from infected people passing through, which is why we continue to advise precautions in these areas.
Remember, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you.
The table below gives full information and explains our risk ratings for indoor places.
Flu Boosters Now Bookable
Although NHS flu vaccine boosters will not be available until October, you can start booking them online now. BuDS strongly recommends that all eligible people get their winter flu booster. The booster upgrades your immune response to the flu variants in circulation this winter and helps prevent severe illness or death from influenza. If you are not eligible for the NHS flu booster, BuDS strongly recommends that you consider a private vaccination from a pharmacy.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Even if you are relaxing some precautions because Covid infection levels are currently low, you may wish to still use other precautions. For example, you may decide not to mask in a café, but to still sit near an open window or to use a HEPA filter.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| Highest | Hospitals & other medical buildings, on buses and trains and other public transport, and in very large indoor stadiums or theatres. | Used by very large numbers of people who are not taking precautions, and/or used by sick people who are much more likely to have Covid. Often poorly ventilated spaces. | You are statistically likely to encounter more than one infected person every time you visit. When you visit, statistically there are likely to be 1 to 5 infected people. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these highest-risk places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| High | Schools, universities and colleges, large cinemas & theatres, large indoor performing arts venues, large indoor shopping centres | Used by large numbers of people who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically likely to encounter at least one infected person every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these high-risk places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, local indoor shopping centres, large office buildings | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person on either the first or second of two visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these high-risk places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants (100-200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, on your first visit, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 2 to 4 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Covid-cautious people using these spaces will wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Lower | Small pubs, bars & cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 22 to 45 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Most people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these spaces in view of the very low infection risk. However, highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces may wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
More Information
This is BuDS’ 285th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.