As predicted, Covid infection levels in England are rising fast, up 14% in the last week of data. The Autumn Wave of Covid is building rapidly. Around 1 in 156 people in England were infected with Covid as of 15 September, and the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life is Very High.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. Roughly, if you travel on 2 full single decker buses, you will encounter 1 infected person over those 2 journeys. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 3 infected people. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
The Autumn Wave is partly being driven by the spread of new Covid variants, such as XEC and MV.1. These new variants only appeared in the early Summer, but have already rapidly spread around the world. They seem to be able to evade any immunity people may have from vaccination and/or a recent infection. They are also highly contagious. We expect these new variants to drive a large Winter Wave from November/December onwards, on top of the current Autumn Wave.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 15 September. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 156 people in England with Covid as of 15 September is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.