There remains a CRITICALLY HIGH risk of catching Covid-19 in Buckinghamshire, with an astonishing 1 in every 17 people in the County already infected as of 6 July. This is a Covid EMERGENCY, and everyone now needs to be really Covid-Careful.
Don’t feel safe because you have had Covid before or are fully vaccinated. The new variants of the Covid virus making up this third wave have evolved to avoid your immunity, so you are still vulnerable to catching Covid again. Every time you catch Covid-19 increases your chances of being very ill or developing Long Covid, so it is VITALLY IMPORTANT to protect yourself now, even if you haven’t been Covid-Careful up until now.
Our advice is to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places, breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.
Don’t Become A BuDS Member!
This new Covid-19 wave is made up of new Omicron variants, mainly BA.4 and BA.5. Infection levels have already reached near record levels – the number of infected people in Buckinghamshire is the third highest on record and there is still no sign of the wave slowing down. Because BA.4 and BA.5 avoid people’ immunity from vaccination or catching Covid before, and because there are no precautions in place, the virus is running riot through the people of Bucks.
This really matters. Covid is not a mild ‘endemic’ infection like the common cold. Covid makes many people really ill at home for weeks, and many people never ‘shake off’ Covid and go on to develop long-term disabilities or health conditions. Covid causes heart attacks and damages the brain, as well as triggering autoimmune conditions like hepatitis and diabetes. Last week, there were over 160 people in Bucks hospitals with severe Covid illness.
BuDS is a charity of disabled people. We know the struggles and disadvantages that disability can cause. We don’t want you, your family, or your friends to need our help in the future. Please be Covid-Careful and take the simple precautions that will help reduce your risk of getting seriously ill or disabled.
Get A Protective Mask!
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is one of the two best ways to protect yourself from Covid (the other is being fully vaccinated and boosted). One of BuDS’ partners, Cambridge Masks Co, are currently offering up to a 70% discount on high-quality, fully-certified reusable PPE face masks- you can get a life-saving mask for only £7.50. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more and get the discounts. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.
Get Vaccinated!
If you are not fully vaccinated, book an appointment NOW to get your remaining jabs. Despite the waves of illness sweeping Bucks, people are still not coming forward for vaccination. This is not sensible: vaccination is safe, free, and significantly reduces your chances of being severely ill or dying of Covid. It also lessens the risk of developing a long-term condition or disability.
If you are a parent, make sure your children get vaccinated too. Although children are less badly affected by Covid than adults, children can and do get ill and they do develop Long Covid and other long-term conditions too. Support organisations for children with Long Covid have hundreds of thousands of members across England. Vaccination of children is safe, free and keeps them safer.
The Risk In Bucks
BuDS uses the most up to date 5-day rolling average ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 6 July. This is of course 9 days ago, but it is the most reliable data available.
Using this data, we calculate that 1 in 17 people in Bucks had Covid, which is 32,251 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks remains CRITICALLY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?[1] – 58
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?[2] – 3,499
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?[3] – 6,997
- How many infected people in Amersham?[4] – 1,579
- How many infected people in Chesham?[5] – 1,558
- How many infected people in Buckingham?[6] – 875
- How many infected people in Burnham?[7] – 662
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?[8] – 88
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?[9] – 583
- How many infected people at a large public event?[10] – 1,166
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?[11] – 58
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?[12] – 18
How Is The NHS Coping?
The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals with Covid-19 rose again this week, by 23.7%. Most of these people have probably caught it in hospital, as admissions of people testing positive have risen by only 2.4%. This emphasises how dangerous healthcare buildings are for catching Covid.
These figures are for 10 July, the latest available:
Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 402.
This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 23.7% higher than the previous week (325). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.
Total number of people admitted with Covid – 87
This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 2.4% higher than last week (85).
Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 161
This figure is 23.7% higher than last week (130).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 35
This figure is 2.4% higher than last week (34).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.
Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the number of deaths in Bucks is sadly remaining high.
There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.
- 11 July, 12 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,342. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
- Between 27 June and 11 July, 14 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,693. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
- Between 17 June and 1 July, 5 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,500. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.
Deaths from Covid in Bucks continue at the rate of one to two every DAY. On average, at least one person has died of Covid in Bucks every single day in the last twenty-eight weeks.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the eleventh week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Only just over 1,900 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 12 July, despite the continued addition of the fourth ‘Spring’ dose to the data.
Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 12 July:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 1,080 children of the over51,000 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (2.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 6,800 young children have had one dose (13.3%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (86.7%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 243 children of the nearly 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (0.8%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 14,600 secondary-age children have had two doses (47.6%), and less than 20,000 secondary-age children have had one dose (63.3%). Over a third (36.7%) of secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,984 of the over 14,000 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (20.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,000 older teenagers have had two doses (64.2%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (76.3%) Nearly a quarter (23.7%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 261,461 of the nearly 380,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (68.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.9%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (86.2%). Nearly a quarter (13.8%) of adults remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – Only 43,945 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had four doses of a vaccine (54.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 75,000 older adults have had three doses (94.1%), just over 77,000 older adults have had two doses (96.3%), and just over 77,000 have had one dose (96.8%). More than 2,500 (3.2%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 17 May 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking.
Offers & More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To find out more about the discounts for certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/
How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
References
[1] Population of approx. 543973 based on 2018 survey data, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time