Covid infection levels in England have remained roughly flat for the fourth week in a row. 1 in every 256 people were infected as of 15 December, and the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life remains Moderately High. Influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) cases continue to rise rapidly – the 6th week of their increase.
As a statistical example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have 1 or 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have an infected person breathing out virus every 2 or 3 journeys. There will be an infected person beathing our virus in every two busy train carriages. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 2 infected people.
It is clear from the data that an influenza and RSV wave is sweeping through England, but Covid is not yet rising. We use data based on GP diagnosis and on laboratory testing, so the data is unlikely to be seriously wrong. The best explanation is that the immense Covid wave which we saw in the Autumn is still giving most people temporary immunity from catching Covid again. The fact that there is not a highly competitive new Covid variant in circulation at the moment is also a big factor. Rather than a Christmas and New Year wave of Covid, therefore, we are seeing a Christmas and New Year wave of other respiratory viruses. It is probable that the autumn Covid wave is also affecting how people are now catching flu and RSV. There will still be another Covid wave, but it looks increasingly likely that this will be in February and March rather than December and January.
The key takeaway from the current situation is that there is still a lot of Covid in circulation (the risk remains Moderately High), and there is a huge amount of flu and other respiratory viruses. The same precautions will protect you against Covid, flu, RSV, and other airborne viruses. If you don’t want to be ill for Christmas and New Year, now is the time to be taking precautions.
We urge everyone who is entitled to a free Covid or flu vaccination to get it immediately. The flu vaccination is widely available from GPs, pharmacies, and other NHS sources. However, you will only be able to book a Covid vaccination appointment online until the end of this week (20 December). You may be able to get a vaccination through your GP after that date. If you are not entitled to a free Covid or flu vaccination, please consider whether paying for the jab would be a good investment (if you can afford it, of course). Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
Remember: Covid, flu, and RSV are airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice, use this link.
Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
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This is BuDS’ 205th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. If you value our Covid information work, including these risk assessments, please consider making a donation to safeguard our work for the future. If you are able to contribute, please visit https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-info.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.