Worryingly, Covid infection levels in England have risen significantly in the last week. We are once again advising strict precautions against catching Covid in all but the lowest risk venues. Around 1 in every 242 people in England were infected as of 14 December, and the risk level is now approaching High.
At the same time, influenza (flu) levels have continued to climb.
A New Covid Variant Arrives
In the last 3 weeks, a new Covid variant – designated by the WHO as B.A.3.2. (or ‘Cicada’) – has begun to rapidly spread across Europe and the UK. This new variant appears to have the ability to avoid the immunity from further infection that most people in the UK have from catching Covid recently. B.A.3.2 may also be easier to catch than existing variants. It is not yet known how much protection the Covid autumn booster will give.
B.A.3.2 therefore has the potential to spread extremely rapidly. On the limited data we have so far, it does appear to be replacing XFG, the current primary variant, very quickly across Europe, and it is reasonable to expect that it will do the same in England.
Although it is still very early days, the WHO and ECDC do not yet have any information to suggest that B.A.3.2 leads to more severe illness or post-Covid conditions than existing variants. Only time will tell.
We will continue to monitor the situation very closely, and give you weekly updates. Remember, you can subscribe to our Substack and get our weekly updates straight to your email for free.
Flu Wave Worsens
Influenza (flu) cases have continued to increase this week. As of 14 December, measured using the NHS NOIDS data, the current flu wave is at about two-thirds of the peak of last year’s flu wave.
The Government are ‘talking up’ the size and intensity of the current flu wave for political purposes, specifically to deter hospital doctors from taking strike action. The impression given by Government and NHS communications is that the NHS and country is facing an unprecedented flu crisis. However, the NHS data itself shows that this year’s flu wave appears to be building in a manner roughly similar to last year’s wave. There is no obvious indication in the data that this year’s flu wave will turn out to be any worse than last year.
While we understand that the Government has political objectives, it is deeply unhelpful and damaging to use public health messaging to serve political ends. Public health information is already mistrusted by a significant number of people following the chaos and corruption of the early pandemic, and this will do nothing to restore trust.
Risk Analysis
In light of the rising risk from both Covid and flu, we strongly recommend that precautions should be taken in all high, medium-high, and medium risk indoor places. In lower risk indoor places, most people (who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid) should consider whether Covid precautions can be relaxed. However, we recommend a cautious approach, as our data is historic and we cannot accurately predict current levels. We continue to not recommend Covid precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
The risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) include wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors, improving fresh air ventilation, using a HEPA filter, and avoiding higher-risk areas.
There is now a real possibility of a ‘twindemic’ wave of both Covid and flu over Christmas and New Year, extending into 2026. We urge everyone to change their behaviour and take sensible precautions to avoid being a victim.
Vaccination
NHS Covid vaccinations are now only available through your GP. If you have not received your three primary doses (most people had these in 2021 and 2022), or if you are eligible for the 2025 autumn booster and haven’t received it, it is urgent that you contact your GP to arrange these free vaccinations. Covid vaccinations have been given over 350 million times in the UK with an extremely low risk of side effects. The risk of serious illness and post-Covid conditions from catching Covid is much, much higher than any tiny risk from the vaccine. Being fully vaccinated reduces your risk of both serious illness and post-Covid conditions.
Disappointingly, the Government have decided that only those groups eligible for the 2025 autumn booster will be eligible for the spring 2026 booster, i.e. people over 75, people in a care home, and clinically immunocompromised people. Once again, clinically vulnerable people, carers, NHS staff, and essential workers will not be eligible for the spring 2026 booster. We once again urge the Government to reconsider this decision, especially with a new Covid wave beginning to build.
NHS flu vaccinations are much more widely available than Covid vaccinations (despite Covid generally being a much more severe disease). We very strongly recommend that you book a flu vaccination through your GP if you have not already received one. Flu vaccines have been given in the UK for more than 60 years without any significant issues or side effects, and being vaccinated against flu not only protects you against flu illness, but also helps prevent you passing the flu to other people. However, the vaccine takes around 2 weeks to fully work and give you this protection, so the earlier you can get it, the better.
Private flu and Covid vaccinations remain widely available from most pharmacies. Covid vaccines cost £90-£120 per dose, while flu vaccines cost £10-£15 per dose. If you cannot get either vaccine on the NHS, we strongly recommend that you consider doing so privately if you can afford it.
Detailed Risk Analysis
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 4, potentially 20+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 3, potentially 6+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 3 | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 5 to 10 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 254th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.