The Covid good news continues, with risk levels remaining Moderately High and 1 in every 430 people in England infected. Other respiratory viruses, such as influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remain elevated, but the trend in both is downwards. Overall, the risk from respiratory viruses, including Covid, is at historically lower levels.
As clinically-vulnerable people ourselves, we are reasonably confident that this is a robust risk assessment.
Covid: A Cautious Prediction for 2026
Although it is too early to be sure, the UK may be repeating last year’s Covid infection pattern. Here’s why we think this.
Before 2025, Covid waves in the UK were caused by the arrival of a new variant which could infect millions of people, ignoring any immunity they may have had from vaccination or prior infection. 2025 was the first year when the UK was not swept by a new variant wave. Instead, different Covid variants coexisted alongside each other, replacing each other as the dominant variant but not causing a huge single variant wave. This has been called “the variant soup”.
At the moment, virologists (scientists who study viruses) have not spotted any new Covid variants which are likely to cause another huge single variant wave. This means that the “variant soup” situation may be the most likely one for the UK in 2026 as well.
We can therefore look at what happened in 2025 as a potential guide to what might happen in 2026. 2025 went as follows:
- In January and February 2025, after a strong winter peak of infections, Covid infection levels fell sharply to historically low levels. Why did this happen? In this period, there was still a lot of virus in circulation, and people were indoors and able to pass the virus easily to one another. The reason this situation did not result in high infection levels was because people do not catch Covid just because they are exposed to the virus. If you have been recently vaccinated (or boosted), or you have recently caught Covid, you are far less likely to catch Covid even if you are exposed to the virus. This is what happened last January and February: there was a high level of community immunity because of prior infection and/or the autumn vaccine booster campaign. Although there was a lot of virus in circulation, the high levels of immunity suppressed Covid infection levels.
- Covid infection levels then gently increased over the whole spring and summer of 2025. This happened for two reasons. Firstly, community immunity waned, meaning that more people could catch Covid if they were exposed to the virus. This pushed Covid infection levels up. Secondly, because people tend to be outdoors more, and to ventilate spaces better in summer, less people were exposed to the virus. This pushed Covid infection levels down. These two factors interacted with each other, but the upward pressures slightly outweighed the downward pressures. This is why we saw a gentle increase in Covid infection levels across spring and summer 2025.
- When autumn 2025 arrived, three things happened. Firstly, people started spending more time indoors. Secondly, by this point in the year, community immunity levels were low because not many people had recently caught Covid or been vaccinated against it. Thirdly, the XFG variant (which had been around in the variant soup during the summer) began to become dominant. The combination of people indoors spreading the virus, low community immunity levels, and a dominant variant, meant that Covid infection levels rapidly increased. This resulted in an autumn and winter wave which did not end until the very beginning of 2026.
So far in 2026, we have seen a repeat of the situation in January and February 2025. We have historically lower Covid infection levels following a winter wave, for the same reasons as in 2025. We have the same sort of “variant soup” with three main variants circulating, but no really competitive variant able to cause a big single wave. Unless a new variant does unexpectedly appear, we therefore predict that Covid infection levels in England will remain historically lower, but edge slowly upwards, until the Autumn. Obviously, we will continue to monitor the situation, and issue regular risk assessments, so we will know whether this prediction is working out or not.
What Does This Mean For Me?
We are aware that millions of people are taking care to avoid catching Covid. This is sensible to protect your health, but is very limiting in terms of lifestyle and opportunities. No-one should stop taking strict precautions against catching Covid in high and medium-high indoor places (see table below or on our website/Substack for details). However, if our prediction of historically lower Covid infection levels in England turns out to be accurate, we do feel that most people will be able to consider relaxing precautions in lower and medium risk indoor places. We give very detailed guidance on this in the table below.
Other Respiratory Viruses
Reported influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) levels are higher at the moment because the winter wave of these illnesses has not yet finished. Levels are falling, but will not be back to “baseline” levels for some weeks yet. For this reason, we continue to recommend precautions against catching flu and RSV in higher-risk indoor places. Generally, because flu and RSV are not as contagious as Covid, the risk levels align, so that the same level of precautions is appropriate.
Risk Analysis
In accordance with the precautionary principle, we continue to recommend that precautions against respiratory viruses should be taken in all high and medium-high indoor places. In lower and medium risk indoor places, most people (who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid and/or flu) should consider whether precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
The risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) in higher risk indoor areas include wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors, improving fresh air ventilation, using a HEPA filter, and avoiding higher-risk areas.
Detailed Covid Risk Analysis
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 2, potentially 12+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 2, potentially 4+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized bars, clubs, and restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, Potentially 1+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions, especially if risk can be mitigated through ventilation or HEPA filtration. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 9 to 17 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 259th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.