Covid infection levels in England have remained roughly flat since last week. 1 in every 252 people were infected as of 1 December, and the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life remains Moderately High.
As a statistical example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have 1 or 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have an infected person breathing out virus every 2 or 3 journeys. There will be an infected person beathing our virus in every two busy train carriages. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 2 infected people.
It is important to realise that levels are only lower at the moment because everyone caught Covid in the last few months. The lower levels of Covid are a sign of public health failure, not public health success. We are still anticipating a rise over Christmas and New Year, although perhaps not to the very high levels seen in previous years. The current lower levels of Covid infection does NOT mean that Covid has ‘gone away’.
By popular demand, BuDS is now on Substack. You can now subscribe to our free Covid Information feed, and receive vital information like our weekly risk assessments direct from BuDS into your email inbox. https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
This is BuDS’ 204th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. If you value our Covid information work, including these risk assessments, please consider making a donation to safeguard our work for the future. If you are able to contribute, please visit https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-info.
We urge everyone who is entitled to a free Covid vaccination to get it immediately – you will only be able to book an appointment until 20 December. You may be able to get a vaccination through your GP after that date. If you are not entitled to a free vaccination, please consider whether paying for the jab would be a good investment (if you can afford it, of course). Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 1 December. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 252 people in England with Covid as of 1 December is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.