Articles in Risk Assessments

Covid infection levels in England have resumed their slow increase. In the week to 4 May, around 1 in every 250 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

Covid infection levels in England have remained at historically lower levels since January 2025, the longest period of lower levels since the pandemic began. It is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 250 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas. This is explained fully below.

Covid infection levels in England remained static in the week to 27 April. Around 1 in every 254 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High. It is too early to see any impact of Easter holiday mixing in the data.

Covid infection levels in England have remained stable in the week to 20 April. The recent slow rise appears to have stopped, although this may be simply a reporting error. As of the week ending 20 April, around 1 in every 265 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High.

Covid infection levels in England once again continue to slowly rise. As of the week ending 13 April, around 1 in every 258 people were infected. The overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High, but we are tentatively predicting a return to High levels in May.

Covid infection levels in England continue to slowly rise, but remain historically low. As of the week ending 6 April, around 1 in every 267 people were infected. The overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High, but we are tentatively predicting a Covid wave in May.

Covid infection levels in England have continued to slowly rise. As of the week ending 30 March, around 1 in every 273 people were infected. The overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High, but we are tentatively predicting a Covid wave in late April or May.

For the first time in 18 weeks, Covid infection levels in England have risen slightly higher. As of the week ending 23 March, around 1 in every 293 people were infected, up 13% on last week. The overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High, but we are tentatively predicting a Covid wave in April or May.

For the 17^th week in a row, Covid infection levels in England have remained relatively low. As of the week ending 16 March, around 1 in every 331 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

We have checked these figures against the only other reputable source available, the Scottish wastewater monitoring of Covid virus levels. While the figures aren’t directly comparable, both data sets show similar trends of a long period of static Covid levels. This makes us as confident as we can be that the Covid figures we give are credible.

Covid infection levels in England have remained relatively low for the 16^th week in a row. As of the week ending 9 March, around 1 in every 336 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

There is what might be the early signs of an increase in Covid infection levels, but not enough evidence to reliably indicate that a new wave is coming. We have checked these figures against the only other reputable source available, the Scottish wastewater monitoring of Covid virus levels. While the figures aren’t directly comparable, both data sets show similar trends of a long period of static Covid levels. This makes us as confident as we can be that the Covid figures we give are credible.

Influenza infections are still continuing to fall, and we expect them to be back to baseline levels in the next 2 months. However, UKHSA has warned of a possible second wave of a new variant of Norovirus, which causes sickness and diarrhoea and can be dangerous for many people. Norovirus is also a virus spread through the air by aerosol, like flu and Covid, as well as by droplets in the air and on surfaces.

For the 15^th week in a row, Covid infection levels in England have remained relatively low. As of the week ending 2 March, around 1 in every 343 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

We have checked these figures against the only other reputable source available, the Scottish wastewater monitoring of Covid virus levels. While the figures aren’t directly comparable, both data sets show similar trends of a long period of static Covid levels. This makes us as confident as we can be that the figures we give are credible.

Influenza infections are still continuing to fall, and we expect them to be back to baseline levels in the next 2 months.