Articles in Risk Assessments

The Covid good news continues, with risk levels remaining Moderately High and 1 in every 430 people in England infected. Other respiratory viruses, such as influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remain elevated, but the trend in both is downwards. Overall, the risk from respiratory viruses, including Covid, is at historically lower levels.

As clinically-vulnerable people ourselves, we are reasonably confident that this is a robust risk assessment.

Some good news: Covid infection levels in England have stabilised at historically lower levels, but are slowly edging up. Reported influenza (flu) levels continue to fall fast and, though flu is currently still at higher levels, the winter wave seen in December is now coming to an end.

Covid infection levels in England seem to have remained at historically lower levels over the last week. Reported influenza (flu) levels have also remained at high levels in the last week. These are tentative conclusions, as the data may be incomplete.

While data issues make the picture uncertain, Covid infection levels in England do not seem to have significantly increased since 14 December, and they may have fallen. For the present, we are maintaining our Covid risk level at Moderately High.

Reported influenza (flu) levels have also fallen significantly, although again there are data issues.

Worryingly, Covid infection levels in England have risen significantly in the last week. We are once again advising strict precautions against catching Covid in all but the lowest risk venues. Around 1 in every 242 people in England were infected as of 14 December, and the risk level is now approaching High.

At the same time, influenza (flu) levels have continued to climb.

Covid infection levels in England rose slightly last week, after falling previously to their lowest level since 2021. With around 1 in every 386 people in England infected as of 7 December, we have reverted to a Moderately High risk level.

More good news about Covid this week, as infection levels in England fall slightly. For the first time since 2021, we have lowered the risk level to Moderate, as around 1 in every 499 people in England were infected as of 30 November.

Influenza (flu) cases continue to sharply increase, and it is clear that the flu season this year will be as bad as it was last year. Remember, the same precautions we recommend for Covid will keep you safe from flu. It is not too late to get vaccinated against flu, and we strongly recommend that you do so if you haven’t already.

The good news about Covid continues this week, as infection levels in England continue to fall to the lowest level seen so far this year. Around 1 in every 429 people in England were infected as of 23 November, and the risk level remains Moderately High.

Influenza (flu) continues to circulate at high levels, but it is possible that the current flu wave has peaked.

Some rare good news about Covid in England, as infection levels fall back to ‘baseline’ levels last seen in early summer 2025. This doesn’t mean Covid has ceased to be a threat, as around 1 in every 296 people in England were still infected as of 16 November. The risk level, however, has fallen to Moderately High.

Influenza (flu) continues to circulate at high levels, but there are signs that the current flu wave may also be about to peak. Remember, while influenza is not as infectious or dangerous as Covid, it is still a nasty virus to catch, and can have long-term health impacts too. The influenza vaccine is much more widely available than the Covid vaccine, and we recommend everyone entitled to a flu vaccine gets one as quickly as possible.