Articles in Risk Assessments

There is still no sign yet of a Covid wave in England. Covid infection levels in England have remained static in the week to 8 June. Around 1 in every 262 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

You will have seen a lot of social media chat about new variant NB.1.8.1, nicknamed Nimbus, and also another variant called XFG. It is said that these new variants are driving another wave of Covid in England. However, as we say above, Covid infection levels in England have actually remained static.

Despite talk of a Covid wave, Covid infection levels in England remained at historically lower levels in the week to 1 June, although there has been a week-on-week rise. Around 1 in every 261 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 261 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.

There’s no sign yet of the threatened summer wave of Covid, as Covid infection levels in England remain at historically lower levels. Last week, to 25 May, rates slightly decreased. Around 1 in every 292 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 292 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.

Covid infection levels in England remain at historically lower levels, with no sign of more than minor week-on-week fluctuations. Last week, to 18 May, around 1 in every 283 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 283 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.

The recent small rise in Covid infection levels in England has probably come to an end. Last week, to 11 May, Covid infection levels fell back to the historically lower level seen in late March. Around 1 in every 282 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High. The data which will help us confirm and understand this fall will not be published for a few weeks, but we will keep you updated as it becomes available.

Covid infection levels in England have resumed their slow increase. In the week to 4 May, around 1 in every 250 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

Covid infection levels in England have remained at historically lower levels since January 2025, the longest period of lower levels since the pandemic began. It is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 250 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas. This is explained fully below.

Covid infection levels in England remained static in the week to 27 April. Around 1 in every 254 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High. It is too early to see any impact of Easter holiday mixing in the data.

Covid infection levels in England have remained stable in the week to 20 April. The recent slow rise appears to have stopped, although this may be simply a reporting error. As of the week ending 20 April, around 1 in every 265 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High.

Covid infection levels in England once again continue to slowly rise. As of the week ending 13 April, around 1 in every 258 people were infected. The overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High, but we are tentatively predicting a return to High levels in May.

Covid infection levels in England continue to slowly rise, but remain historically low. As of the week ending 6 April, around 1 in every 267 people were infected. The overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High, but we are tentatively predicting a Covid wave in May.