Articles in Covid-19

1 in 59 people in Bucks now infected. 5 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid remains Very High.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 8 May 2023

The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life this week remains Very High. At least 1 in every 59 people in Bucks have Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 5 and 9 infected people breathing out virus which you could catch.

We are still in the trough between Covid waves. There are very early signs of an increase in the number of infected people. Very tentatively, we could see cases starting to increase over the next two to three weeks (to the end of May), and potentially a new peak of infections in June.

This ‘next wave’ may be driven by sub-variants of the XBB Covid variant, or by older variants for which people have lost their temporary immunity, or a mixture of both.

BuDS continues to recommend that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3). For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

This article was edited on 9 May to take into account the late publication of the Zoe Covid Study data.

1 in 56 people in Bucks now infected. 6 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid remains Very High.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 1 May 2023

The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life this week remains Very High. Around 1 in every 56 people in Bucks have Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 6 and 11 infected people breathing out virus which you could catch.

We are now in the trough between Covid waves, and infection levels are probably as low as they are going to get. The next Covid wave will start to build soon.

BuDS continues to recommend that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3). For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

This data is based on the Zoe Health Study for Covid-19, adjusted to take account of its limited coverage. To learn more about this, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

1 in 57 people in Bucks now infected. 5 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid now Very High.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 24 April 2023

The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life this week is Very High, as the latest wave continues to decline. Around 1 in every 57 people in Bucks have Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 5 and 10 infected people breathing out virus which you could catch.

The current wave of infection is now well past its peak, and will probably continue to decline over the next few weeks. However, the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person will probably remain Very High for the rest of April.

BuDS continues to recommend that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3). For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

This data is based on the Zoe Health Study for Covid-19, adjusted to take account of its limited coverage. To learn more about this, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

1 in 50 people in Bucks now infected. 6 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid remains Extremely High.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 17 April 2023

The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life this week remains Extremely High, as the latest wave continues to decline. Around 1 in every 50 people in Bucks have Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 6 and 11 infected people breathing out virus which you could catch.

The current wave of infection is now well past its peak, and will probably continue to decline over the next few weeks. However, the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person will probably remain Extremely or Very High for the rest of April.

BuDS continues to recommend that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3). For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

This data is based on the Zoe Health Study for Covid-19, adjusted to take account of its limited coverage. To learn more about this, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

1 in 45 people in Bucks now infected. 12 infected people in a busy supermarket. Risk of meeting someone with Covid now Extremely High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 10 April 2023

The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life this week is now Extremely High, as we pass the peak of the latest wave. Around 1 in every 45 people in Bucks have Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 7 and 12 infected people breathing out virus which you could catch.

The current wave of infection has now passed its peak, and will probably continue to decline over the next few weeks. However, the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person will probably remain Extremely High for the rest of April.

BuDS continues to recommend that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3). For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

This data is based on the Zoe Health Study for Covid-19, adjusted to take account of its limited coverage. To learn more about this, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

1 in 23 people in Bucks now infected 13 infected people in a busy supermarket Risk of meeting someone with Covid remains Critically High

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 4 April 2023

The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life this week remains Critically High. Around 1 in every 23 people in Bucks has Covid.

As an example of the risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have between 9 and 13 infected people breathing out virus which you could catch.

There are early signs that the current wave of infection has passed its peak, and will decline over the next few weeks. However, the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person will probably stay Extremely High for the rest of April.

BuDS continues to recommend that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3). For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

This data is based on the Zoe Health Study for Covid-19, adjusted to take account of its limited coverage. To learn more about this, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

A generic unlabelled line graph consisting of 3 lines: orange, blue, and grey

The Thinking Behind The New BuDS Covid-19 Risk Assessment – April 2023

Introduction

BuDS have produced 141 weekly Covid-19 risk assessments using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey. However, the Government have withdrawn funding for the Infection Survey, and the last weekly data was published on 24 March, covering the period up to 13 March.

BuDS have carried out an options appraisal on what to do now, and have decided to continue to publish a short weekly risk assessment using the best available Covid-19 data. We will also publish a monthly Covid-19 bulletin with full weekly deaths, hospitalisations, and vaccinations data.

This paper explains how BuDS have decided to use the Zoe Study as the basis for our weekly Covid-19 risk assessments from April 2023 onwards. It also explains the mathematical methodology we use and how we present the data.

Read More
1 in 22 people in Bucks now infected. Covid Risk now CRITICALLY HIGH. Every week, 10,000 Bucks people have Covid. 14 infected People in Every Busy Supermarket.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 24 March 2023

Covid infections in Bucks nearly doubled last week. The Covid risk has been raised to Critically High, with more people with Covid going into hospital.  

This is the last risk post in this format, as the Government have deliberately closed the Office for National Statistics’ Coronavirus Infection Survey, which measures how many people have Covid in the UK. However, we will continue publishing risk assessments using other data – more on this next week.  

Read More
1 in 45 people in Bucks now infected. Covid Risk remains EXTREMELY HIGH. Every week, 10,000 Bucks people have Covid. 7 infected People in Every Busy Supermarket.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 17 March 2023

Covid infections in Bucks remained constant last week. The Covid risk remains Extremely High, with more people with Covid going into hospital.

The Government have made several changes recently to hide the true extent of Covid in the UK. One of these changes is that they are stopping the ONS Infection Survey, which is the most reliable way of finding out how many people have Covid in the UK. Because of this, next week’s risk post will be the last in this format. To find out more about these changes, and BuDS’ reaction to them, use the link below.

Read More
1 in 39 people in Bucks now infected. Covid Risk remains EXTREMELY HIGH. Every week, 10,000 Bucks people have Covid. 8 infected People in Every Busy Supermarket.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 10 March 2023

Covid infections in Bucks increased last week, with no sign yet that the current wave has peaked. The Covid risk remains Extremely High. It is unclear whether the current wave, driven mainly by XBB variants, will continue to build.

People are asking why we still issue Covid risk assessments when so many people have stopped taking notice of Covid. The reality is that over 10,000 people have Covid every week in Bucks, and their health is getting worse all the time. Nearly all doctors now believe that Covid causes serious long-term effects for many people who catch it, even if they are not very ill immediately. Covid is destroying the health of Buckinghamshire, one infection at a time.

Read More