Bucks is facing a huge Covid wave, as infections surged over Christmas and New Year. With an astonishing 1 in 17 people now infected, and 17 infected people in a typical busy supermarket, we’ve raised the risk level to CRITICALLY HIGH. This means that, unless you take precautions when out and about, you are almost CERTAIN to catch Covid in the next few weeks. Remember, you can still catch Covid even if you are fully vaccinated or have had Covid before – there is no such thing as lasting immunity from Covid.
Our advice remains to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries), breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.
Remember, it’s scientifically proven that Covid has hidden serious effects for many people who catch it, even if they are not very ill immediately, including making it more likely that they will get seriously ill with common infections. This is why we are continuing to stress that people should take precautions to avoid catching Covid.
Why Is This Wave Happening?
Covid is a very clever virus. As soon as it finds a barrier to infecting people, it mutates to find a way around it. During 2022, many people got vaccinated or caught Covid. So, the Covid virus mutated into new variants which could get around that immunity. Two of these ‘immune-evasive’ new variants spread fast during November and December and have now been joined by a third, XBB.1.5, which is even more immune-evasive.
Because so few people took precautions against catching Covid over Christmas and New Year, these new variants have been able to spread freely through the population, creating this huge wave. We expect the present Covid wave to get even worse in the next few weeks as the virus is spread in schools, colleges, and universities.
It’s Not The Flu!
Everyone is saying there is a lot of flu around. However, the NHS’s own data shows that there is no more flu around than a usual winter. Many people who think they have ‘the flu’ have actually got Covid. Unlike the flu, however, Covid damages the body’s immune system, making it harder to cope with even ordinary illnesses. This is what has led to the current scarlet fever wave. Covid also causes damage to people’s organs and cells, leading to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, liver disease and similar conditions. Around 10% of people who catch Covid never fully recover and develop Long Covid, which can be a really disabling condition.
Get Boosted & Get A Protective Mask!
If you are eligible for the NHS autumn booster, make sure you take it. If you or your children haven’t yet had all your other Covid vaccinations, get them done now. Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death or serious illness.
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. Wearing an FFP2 or N95 filter mask means that the air in your lungs is clean, even if there is lots of Covid in the air around you. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.
The Risk In Bucks
BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 28 December. This is 9 days ago, but it is the most reliable data available. We have carefully calculated the most likely infection data as of 4 January by mathematically extrapolating the trend in the ONS data. If you want to know more, please get in touch.
Using this method, we estimate that 1 in 17 people in Bucks were infected as of 4 January, which is 32,162 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is CRITICALLY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?[1] – 58
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?[2] – 3,489
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?[3] – 6,978
- How many infected people in Amersham?[4] – 1,575
- How many infected people in Chesham?[5] – 1,554
- How many infected people in Buckingham?[6] – 872
- How many infected people in Burnham?[7] – 661
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?[8] – 87
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?[9] – 582
- How many infected people at a large public event?[10] – 1,163
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?[11] – 58
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?[12] – 17
How Is The NHS Coping?
We have decided not to give figures for the number of patients in Bucks hospital with Covid this week. This is because the NHS has been under such intense pressure that patients have not been tested for Covid in the usual way. This means the test results are potentially misleading. We will update you as soon as we have reliable data.
Bearing that in mind, you can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We have decided not to give data about Covid deaths in Bucks this week. This is because the registration of deaths has been delayed by the Christmas and New Year break, and so the data is incomplete and potentially misleading. We will update you as soon as the data has been updated.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the thirty fifth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Just over 400 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 3 January. This is once again almost entirely due to the addition of the fifth ‘autumn’ dose to the data, and again significantly fewer than last week. If this is discounted, only 92 doses were given across all age groups. The rates of vaccination in Bucks are steadily slowing.
Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 3 January:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 4,947 children of the 51,700 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (9.6%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. 192 people have had 3 doses, and 7,397 young children have had one dose (14.3%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (85.7%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 482 children of the nearly 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.6%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 15,000 secondary-age children have had two doses (47.5%), and 18,253 secondary-age children have had one dose (558.7%). 4 in 10 (41.3%) secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,719 of the nearly 14,500 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (19.3%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,100 older teenagers have had two doses (63.0%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (74.4%). Over a quarter (25.6%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 263,560 of the over 381,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (69.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 92,000 adults have had four doses (24.1%), all of which are part of the autumn booster programme. Under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.6%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (85.8%). Over a tenth (14.2%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – 68,395 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had five doses of a vaccine (84.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 44,000 older adults have had four doses (54.5%), just over 76,000 older adults have had three doses (94.5%), just over 77,600 older adults have had two doses (96.4%), and just over 78,000 have had one dose (96.9%). Just under 2,500 (3.1%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 8 November 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking.
More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To view the full range from Cambridge Masks Co – https://cambridgemask.com/
How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
Population References
[1] Population of approx. 553,100 based on 2021 survey data
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time