It’s not the news we wanted to end 2022, but a potentially dangerous new Covid-19 variant has started to spread in the UK. It’s called XBB.1.5 and has gone from 0% to around 2 or 3% of all infections in the UK in less than a month. This is one of the fastest rates of growth of any new variant.
XBB.1.5 is extremely immune-evasive, meaning it can get around immunity you may have from vaccination or having had Covid before, even recently. In the US, where XBB.1.5 has been circulating for a few weeks, it is associated with a much higher level of deaths and hospital admissions than other Omicron variants. This strongly suggests that XBB.1.5 is more likely to lead to very severe illness than other Omicron variants.[1]
The graph below (from Professor Christina Pagel of UCL) shows XBB.1.5 rapid growth compared to the two current main variants.
- What Is XBB.1.5?
- How Likely Am I To Catch XBB.1.5?
- Why Does Catching XBB.1.5 Matter?
- Will XBB.1.5 Cause Another Wave?
- BuDS’ Advice
- More Information
- We Are Here To Help!
- References
What Is XBB.1.5?
For those who are interested, XBB.1.5 is a ‘recombinant’ variant of Omicron BA.2, the variant of Omicron which caused a surge of cases in the UK in February & March 2022. Recombinant means that genetic material from other variants of Omicron mixed together to create a new variant.
In this case, two sub-variants of BA.2 merged to create XBB. XBB caused a wave of hospitalisations and deaths in Singapore in October 2022. Singapore has one of the highest rates of vaccination and boosters in the world, so it was very worrying that XBB spread so fast and caused so many serious illnesses there.
This original XBB variant then spread to the US where, in New York, it mutated further into XBB.1, then XBB.1.5. This last mutation caused XBB to acquire what virologists call the ‘F486P mutation’.
Please note that XBB.1.5 first arose in New York, America, from a variant which first arose in Singapore. It is not a ‘Chinese variant’ and (so far as we know) has nothing to do with the troubling situation in China.
How Likely Am I To Catch XBB.1.5?
When you catch Covid-19, or get vaccinated against Covid, your immune system’s defences are primed to spot and attack the Covid-19 virus. This priming of your defences helps prevent the virus, if you catch it again, from making you severely ill or dying, although it doesn’t stop the virus entirely. The F486P mutation helps the virus escape your immune system’s defences, even if it is primed to attack a Covid-19 virus.
What this means is that, even if you are fully vaccinated and boosted, or you have just recovered from Covid, you can still catch XBB.1.5. The NHS Spikevax ‘autumn booster’ may give better protection than earlier vaccinations, but this isn’t yet proven.
Why Does Catching XBB.1.5 Matter?
You get severely ill with Covid when your immune system defences can’t damp down or stifle the effects of the virus. If a virus variant, like XBB.1.5, can evade your immune system defences, your body has a much lower chance of doing its job to stifle the virus. So, your risk of being seriously ill with XBB.1.5 is much higher than with earlier variants of Covid-19, which your body has defences against.
This is what is being seen in the US now. In New York, where XBB.1.5 is the dominant variant, hospitalisations for Covid are at their highest rate ever in 2022.
In the US, XBB.1.5 is causing severe illness in all age groups, including children and young people. There is no reason to believe that this will not happen here in the UK too.
Will XBB.1.5 Cause Another Wave?
Although XBB.1.5 is still present in low numbers in the UK, all the evidence suggests it will spread very quickly indeed. Other successful variants like BA.1 and BA.2 went from tiny numbers to hundreds of thousands of cases in a very short time. Given that XBB.1.5 is spreading at exactly the time when people mix together for Christmas and New Year, it will be able to grow very easily. Schools and colleges going back in early January will increase the spread, possibly causing a secondary wave.
While there has been a high level of Covid illness in the UK throughout 2022, this has been caused by variants against which most people have some immune defence. While lots of people have been ill at home, we have not seen a massive wave of severe illness which has put thousands of people into hospital or caused the highest rates of death. XBB.1.5 threatens to cause such a wave.
The NHS is close to breaking point already on a combination of Covid and winter viruses made worse by Covid. Another huge wave of severe cases could cause NHS services to break down even further.
BuDS’ Advice
Our advice is to take XBB.1.5 seriously, even if you’ve stopped worrying about Covid. This wave probably will be much more serious than the general situation in 2022.
Our advice remains to get fully vaccinated and boosted and to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries). These are the two most effective things you can do to protect yourself against XBB.1.5 and all other Covid variants. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co – see link at the end of this article.
If you can’t or don’t feel able to do these things, please reduce your risk by breathing clean air and avoiding crowds and busy indoor places. Work from home if you can, or talk to your employer about precautions you could take there.
Above all, protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. Meet up outdoors or get them a filter mask. Don’t invite them to social gatherings where Covid will be spreading.
These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability caused by XBB.1.5 and all the other Covid-19 variants.
More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see the current risk from Covid-19 in Bucks, visit: https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/risk-assessments/
To find out more about Cambridge Masks Co, and their products, visit: https://cambridgemask.com/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
Finally, Why the Kraken?
Why have we used a picture of a Kraken for this article? The XBB.1.5 variant is nicknamed ‘the Kraken’ by some virologists.
References
[1] Primary source: Professor Eric Topol, Scrips Research Institute, quoting https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-new-variant-alert.